Mitchell did not win by as large of a margin as LePage.  Mitchell beat Steve Rowe by roughly 15,000 votes.  LePage bested the next closest Republican, Les Otten, by roughly 25,000.  Rowe beat Mitchell in Cumberland County by roughly 5% of the voter.  Pat McGowan took Somerset by a large percentage, roughly 20% more than Mitchell.  Mitchell well in Kennebec County and in some coastal counties to a lesser extent.

Turnout for both parties was about even, 96K for the Dems and 90K for the GOP.  The party faithful will now coalesce behind their candidate.  The Bangor Daily News is calling this a “right vs. left race for governor“.  That’s what party stalwarts are saying too, at least about their party opponent.

Some on the right were cheering for Mitchell to win the nomination.  Look at this little nugget from Matt Gagnon:

…almost every single leading Republican campaign in this race has been salivating at the chance to run against Libby.  She is everything that is wrong with politics, both nationally and in Maine.  She is a career politician – literally running to complete a public service trifecta – in a year where “career politician” sounds an awful lot like “hardened criminal” to the electorate.  One campaign told me that they believe there is no way she could win, and that she would in fact come in third.  They want her as their opponent.  Bad.

Mitchell’s opponents will try to paint her as a far left, tax and spend liberal.  They will link her to Augusta and Baldacci.  There was anger behind LePage’s election.  Our economic situation has fueled a lot of outrage against the state.  The GOP will direct that anger against Mitchell.  While she will debate how liberal her record actually is, Mitchell can’t escape the fact she is linked to the current administration.  She can try to convince voters that isn’t automatically a bad thing.

Those on the left launching their bombs early as well.  They too think their opponent will be an easy candidate to beat.  We will be hearing plenty about how the Tea Party hijacked the Maine GOP.  Already, outside sources are calling LePage’s win a Tea Party victory.  The Democrats will attempt to link LePage to the worst elements of the Tea Party movement.  LePage’s social views will be brought up as much as possible.  They hit him on same-sex marriage,  teaching creationism in schools, and for things like being on the Aroostook Watchmen radio show.  “He’s just too conservative for Maine”, they will say.  The opposition will highlight it all.

Some Democrats believe, like some of the GOP believes about Mitchell, that LePage’s views make him easy to defeat.  The phrase “Woodcock 2.0″ has been tossed around already.  2006 was a completely different time.  Think about where the state and country were then, both politically and economically.  2010 is vastly different.  We are still in an economic downturn.  There is hot anti-government anger against most established politicians.  Those factors were not present in 2006.  Maine’s economy was better than it is now.  The GOP was on the outs, but that favored Democrats.  Paul LePage is not Chandler Woodock and Libby Mitchell is not John Baldacci.  Baldacci ran as a centrist Democrat and had the tide with him.  Mitchell is not a centrist and the tide has started to turn the other way.  Woodcock did not have the kind of die hard supporters behind him that LePage does.  Woodcock won his primary by roughly 3%.  Lepage, as you know, did much better.

So where does that leave Eliot Cutler?  Cutler is going to try his hardest to convince voters he is the middle way.  Cutler does not share LePage’s conservative social views.  Cutler has also said, “Our state government is too remote, too big, too unfriendly and too expensive,” which could be considered a counter-point to some of Mitchell’s policy decisions.  Cutler will try to make the case to those in the middle that he has the things they want, without the baggage that turned them away from their own party candidates.

A number of people have said that with Mitchell/LePage in the race they would give serious consideration to Cutler.  On the left, supporters of Rosa Scarcelli and Pat McGowan may be interested in Cutler.  On the right, some of all candidate’s supporters – save Bill Beardsley – may consider Cutler, especially those that backed moderate candidates like Mills or Abbott.  We don’t know yet how many voters will be loyal party supporters and line up behind their candidates.  There are the coveted independents as well.  Cutler will be courting them fiercely, as will LePage and Mitchell

The GOP will try to paint Cutler as a liberal.  Conventional wisdom says an unenrolled candidate in Maine takes more votes from a Democrat than a Republican.  Cutler is likely prepared for the eventuality of that tactic, as is Mitchell.  Don’t forget about Shawn Moody either.  While it remains to be seen if he can really get the name recognition he needs, financial reports say Moody did a $98k media buy on the 1st and he gave himself a $500k self loan back in April.  Moody is serious about this run.  He will try to occupy the same centrist space that Cutler will.  Moody may end up being a factor in this race.

It’s would be easy to say the is a clear cut choice between the far left and the far right with Cutler and Moody in the middle.  There is no easy path to victory for any candidate.  Attempting to boil the race down to this v that makes for an easily digestible news story, but the real meal is far more complex.  As we move on to join Pine Tree Politics, we’ll continue to present the gubernatorial menu as clearly as possible.  We’ll explain, in detail, what is in each dish so you can choose the most delicious meal.

Before looking at each race, here are a few overall thoughts.  Last check there were still many undecided voters.   Turnout is expected to be small.  20% would be high according to Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap.  Dunlap reasoned that indecision could keep voters home.  Democrats and Republicans may reason that they will vote party line anyway so they’ll just wait instead of agonizing over a primary choice.  I caution voters against that.  The Dem race could be decided by a relatively low number of voters, even less for the GOP.  If you don’t support the candidate you feel is best for Maine, it’s feasible your least favorite could be the nominee.

Susan Cover has some numbers on voter registration.  Independents still make up the largest number of Mainers with 385,388 registered voters.  Independents can vote in the primary, provided they register with a party.  They must remain with that party for at least three months.  There are 329,610 Democrats, 270,601 Republicans, and 34,398 Green Independents registered as well.  Cover also has numbers on voters who have switched parties or enrolled in one.  Almost twice as many Independents have joined the GOP (1,200) as the Democrats (658).  956 Dems switched teams and 346 went to the other side.   Since the Republican race is more divided, those joining the GOP will make more of a difference.  We are only talking about 1,356 voters, which will be split, so it wont be a game changer by any means.

You can expect that candidates will be traveling the state in a final push to connect with voters.  Expect phone banks to be running for most candidates through tomorrow.  According to finance reports we will also see last minute ads on radio and TV.

DEMOCRATS:

As far as mailings, I have only received one from Pat McGowan.  Others have said the same.  Libby Mitchell’s expense reports show that she has paid for mailers, but I don’t know if or when Democrats received them.   McGowan’s mailer reached voters on Saturday.  This gave voters the whole weekend to ponder it.  Most voters were likely too busy  today, and will be tomorrow as well, to look into candidates.  McGowan gains an edge there.

McGowan also blanketed Southern Maine with signs, much more than I’ve seen from any of the other Dems.  Mitchell and Rosa Scarcelli follow, but Scarcelli had hers out a little earlier than Mitchell.  Also there are more large signs out for Scarcelli than any other Dem.  Steve Rowe is still severely lacking.  I’ve read that Rowe seems to have fared better Augusta to Bangor. Signs don’t win, but the lack of signs does point to a possible lack of a good grassroots game from Rowe.

Two opinions emerged from the last Democratic debate.   There was a strong showing from both Mitchell and Scarcelli.  The debates might give a small boost to Scarcelli.  “Rosa held her own against Mitchell” some people have told me.  Then there’s the other side to the story, and more importantly, the opinion that seems most prevalent.  Mitchell strengthened her lead in the debate.  They saw Scarcelli’s blows against Mitchell as condescending rather than heroic.  There is still a feeling that Scarcelli’s campaign has done more to anger Democrats than bring them to her side.  Maybe those Democrats wouldn’t have voted for Scarcelli anyway, but those tactics have turned more voters away than they have attracted.  Most of those I asked stated that both McGowan and Rowe failed to make a favorable impression during this debate.

Rowe will finish strong, but there is a good chance Mitchell will overtake him.  People expected Rowe to present himself as a strong leader, but in TV appearances, commercials, and debates Rowe made a poor impression.  That seems to have stuck with people.  Everyone was looking for a candidate to get excited about and Rowe wasn’t exciting.  Also, his lack of lawn signs show a possible lack a of strong ground game.  Rowe dropped the ball, giving his opponents an opportunity to chip away at his support.  If you are going to push that you were in the military you had better present yourself as a confident leader.  I’m not sure Rowe imparted that on voters.

All of the candidates, from both parties, are running the roads to meet voters right now.  Check out the #GubernatorialCatch hashtag on twitter for clever updates of the candidates’ travels.  One of the Democrats that must emphasize this over the next day is Steve Rowe.  Rowe is much better one on one or in small groups.  Out of that setting – like the debates for example – he appears like an entirely different man.  If Rowe continues to hit the streets and shake hands he may eek out a win over Mitchell.

I’m going to update my previous predictions slightly.  The gap between Mitchell and Rowe is going to be close.  It may turn out to be less of a gap and more of a micro-fissure. I could go back and forth over which one is really going to take this thing.  I also am all over the map with McGowan.  Did his final commercials really connect with voters?  Will voters really accept his plan to reduce the legislature or will that be a coffin nail for the McGowan campaign?  Did McGowan rely to heavily on biographical information in his campaign?  Bruce Bourgoine reasons he has.  I have heard from other sources that McGowan did not spend enough time on the issues.  One voter told me he and people from his campaign visited their place of work several times.  Not once did anyone receive an issues pamphlet or card.  Most information McGowan’s campaign handed out centered on bio or his support of sportsmen.  “I’m glad he’s a hunter, but I’d like to know what he’s going to do for Maine,” one person said.  It’s hard to say whether those issues were a hit or miss with voters.  I wouldn’t could McGowan out completely.  And then there is Scarcelli.  She will do better than expected, but I still believe she will be packing it up Wednesday morning.  Her campaign would not have been bad had Scarcelli been running as an Unenrolled candidate.  The average Democrat does not seem to be swayed.  Scarcelli will make a good showing in greater Portland.  She may surprise a few people at how well she actually does, possibly even end up a third place finish.

Last guess on outcome:

Steve Rowe: low thirties – high twenties

Libby Mitchell: low thirties – high twenties

Pat McGowan: mid twenties – high teens

Rosa Scarcelli: low twenties – teens

GOP:

I’ve had a hard time reading how the GOP race will end up.  Steve Abbott knows how to campaign and win.  Abbott has put together a good team and has a good ground game.  They are on top of things.  There is some  anti-Collins hate out there among the GOP.  Abbott’s connection to DC and Collins will prevent some people from choosing him.  That said, Susan Collins is not as hated as some people say.  Her popularity among Mainers is still relatively high.  One complaint I’ve heard from the GOP about Abbott is that he can be a little dry.  That could have prevented some casual voters from looking into Abbott further, but being unexciting hasn’t disqualified gubernatorial candidates before and it likely wont have a large impact on Abbott tomorrow.

I’ve heard from a reputable source that Les Otten is planning one last attack.  Financial reports show he has paid for radio advertising.  There is a good chance Otten will hit his closest competition, Abbott, Paul LePage, and Peter Mills.  Otten’s campaign has been a juggernaut.  You attack Otten, he comes right back at you, calls himself a victim and makes you look like the bad guy.  Dirt seems to slide off him.  Otten’s “Dad vs. Hitler” ad may backfire.  Then again, the average voter may be moved by it.  The campaign was smart releasing it so late.  No one has time to counter it with a proper fact check.  There are some documents that supposedly discuss the events Otten speaks of in his ad, if you can read German.

Peter Mills has a good team behind him. They seem to have learned from Mills’ past run for governor.  Mill has tried to appeal to demographics that his opponents hold; business people, sportsmen, and the Tea Party.  I don’t know how successful those efforts will be.  It’s safe to say not many Tea Partiers will vote for him, especially given his stance on tax reform.  Those voters weren’t his bread and butter anyway.  Mills’ ads were effective, especially his last one.  He has paid for print ads as well.  Not a bad idea, considering that people who take the time to read the papers will likely take the time to vote as well.  Mills’ team has been doing a lot of phone work.  I don’t know the details – how many calls lead to committed votes, just leaning votes, etc. – so it’s hard to say if it will pay off.  It certainly helps.  They made 137,496 calls by last count.  I think he made a good choice by putting out signs with his face on them.  No one else has done that.  They stand out, which helps people remember you.

Paul LePage is the biggest unknown.  He could surprise everyone or he could come in fourth.  Question one could bring LePage some votes, but that’s not a guarantee.  LePage’s supporters are STRONG, much stronger than any other candidate.  Sometimes I think they’d drive 3,000 miles to vote for him.  They are loyal and they are vocal.  That makes LePage’s level of support hard to judge.  Is it just a small group that is really vocal or a broader base?  LePage is certainly hitting the pavement like the other candidates, but he has bought mailers, media, and $20K on robo calls.  So how do you tell what’s real and what’s plastic grass with LePage?  You look at the results.

There are still three other candidates.  They wont to win, but what impact will they have.  Matt Jacobson and  Bruce Poliquin will draw votes from Otten and Abbott.  In Poliquin’s case it’s less votes going to him, but more about  redirected votes.  If his attacks on Otten help anyone it will be Mills and possibly Abbott.  Bill Beardsley will only steal from LePage .  Maybe more than first thought.  Recently, LePage said in a WCSH6 report that if we focus on social issues Maine will be doomed.  Dan Billings said this was a disingenuous remark from LePage.  Apparently LePage sent out a mailer the same week highlighting his positions on social issues.  “When you highlight [social issues in] your one major campaign mailing,” said Billings, “it sends the message that such issues are a priority for you.”  Beardsley’s campaign countered LePage’s WCSH6 assertion saying the following:

From Michael Pajak:

Social Conservative voters should be appalled. Not only does Paul try to nuance his flip-flopping on civil unions, but he now suggests that values voters should not expect him to put the issues they take into consideration when voting on his “priority list” should he get the nod.

LePage supporters, as they have done all along, will brush this aside as a simple misstatement or as not that important, but it is. I see this as consistent with Paul’s entire campaign, and should be cause for alarm to those that think that he represents social conservative values, or that he is electable in a General Election.

If you do not believe that civil union legislation will be the first thing on the new governor’s desk, than explain why Equality Maine and several national groups are working so hard to re-elect those that pushed gay marriage. If you support Paul LePage thinking that he will veto that bill, you should think again. He has failed to convince me of his social conservative convictions, both by his statements and his actions during this campaign.

Now it was only on AMG and Facebook so who knows how far it will reach, but if it trickles down to enough voters that may hurt LePage.  Values voters were considered by many to be a large base of support for LePage.  If they should agree with Beardsley that LePage will not walk the walk as governor,  the results could be just enough to keep LePage behind the pack.  LePage’s supporters will be at the polls tomorrow.  With the GOP pie split into so many pieces that does count for something.

Last guess on outcome:

Les Otten: mid – low twenties

Peter Mills: mid – low twenties

Steve Abbott: mid – low twenties

Paul LePage: low twenties – high teens

Matt Jacobson: mid teens

Bruce Poliquin: low teens

Bill Beardsley: single digits

Matt Jacobson – Choices
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Pat McGowan – Newspapers
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Peter Mills – Experienced Leadership
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Libby Mitchell – Rally
[youtube]UIJARgAMUP0[/youtube]

Rosa Scarcelli – Believe Again!
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Decrying the influence of private individual and corporate money on politics through large donations that imply ‘quid pro quo’ expectations or at the very least represent uneven influence on election outcomes has created a political foundation for election finance reform in this country. While at present this movement has not reached its full potential, laws like the Maine Clean Election Law are bright spots of forward looking electoral reform.

For those running as Clean Election candidates, Mills, Mitchell, and McGowan, we know that their message is unencumbered by financial donations with strings attached loosely or tightly. For those running two campaigns, one of message pushing and one of money pulling, it is fair to delve into who their donors are and what their influences might indicate.

Because of an upper limit on donations of $750 for Governor, that influence on the “traditional” campaigns can be said to be somewhat lessened, although multiple donations through individuals with the same address and kinship can be discovered by combing through financial reports. However, there is one departure from the $750 limit that is very visible in this year’s race for the Blaine House and that is the no limit on self donations or self loans to one’s own campaign.

All of the Republican candidates, except Mills, have engaged in fairly significant range of self financing with Jacobson ($20K) and Abbott ($87K) giving five figure loans to themselves to Beardsley ($250K), LePage ($111K) and Poliquin ($400K plus lots of in-kind spending) in the six figure donation or loan club. On the Democratic side, only Scarcelli ($258K) is engaged in this self funding nominate-a-thon. “Traditional” fund raising Rowe self donations (2K) are very minor in comparison.

We can say that self-funding is “putting your money where your mouth is” and that using one’s own financial success places one above financial influences. It is very much the former and definitely not the latter.

When one looks at the Otten spending juggernaut driving toward Augusta, it becomes essential to question why he is spending so much money and determining “where his mouth is”. Les Otten is a candidate who at every turn has repeatedly decried taxes on wealth and wants to eliminate estate and capital gains taxes entirely. And while his white paper contends that this will attract capital to the state that will create jobs, it in reality has equal or more potential to attract tax shelter wealth that will create only more wealth for those in Les Otten’s own class and be of minimal benefit to Maine. These tax eliminations may very well lead to starving reasonable funding of government forcing deep cuts in education and services. In short, while the Otten promotes an array of issues, tax reduction, primarily for wealth, appears to be his core motivation.

We seem to give a pass and tolerate huge expenditures of personal wealth in our political campaigns. Yet these vast sums package and propel messages that might not go very far in a Clean Election race. Our standard ought to be one of severely questioning the motivations behind campaign donations. In Maine, “traditional” donation limits do somewhat allow one to make assumptions based on who is supporting who and to a degree lessen “quid pro quo” suspicions.

But vast self-funding in the hundred of thousands to the millions begs the question, what is the “quid pro quo” to oneself? Several candidates obviously should be pressed hard on this concern. Frantic spending in a drive to elect oneself raises questions of ulterior motives, negative egotism, lack of connection with everyday voters, and even prudent financial management abilities.

More than anyone else in the funding campaign at this juncture, Les Otten can be evaluated by his pumping personal cash that is twice all his competitors and potential competitors combined in both parties. It is wealth expended to protect wealth. It represents an extreme narrow influence of wealth on the gubernatorial race. It is a corrupting influence.

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Matt Jacobson’s ad is about experience.  Briefly Jacobson mentions his military service then moves right on to discuss his business accomplishments.  Jacobson highlights his experience working in Maine and abroad.  Jacobson ends by touting the number of jobs his company has created in the state.  Everything Jacobson says ties into the economy, which I still believe will be the issue in the general election.  The ad is also intimate.  It takes place entirely in what is supposed to resemble, or perhaps is, Jacobson’s home.

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Rosa Scarcelli’s third ad is aimed directly at Independent voters.  The ad shows independent voters asking for someone they can get excited about.  They want someone with common sense, not a career politician.  Can we have someone like that to vote for?  “Ayuh, we can!”, says Scarcelli’s ad.  The ad encourages registered independents to switch parties to vote for Scarcelli.  It even let’s voters know they can switch right back after the primary if they wish.  Scarcelli herself appears at the close of the ad, urging everyone to get out and participate in the voting process.

Of all the ads the Scarcelli campaign has released so far, this most recent ad looks the least polished.  The graphics and cuts of video look as though they were quickly put together.  Now, LePage’s ad looks minimalist and low cost, but it works.  LePage’s ad does not look rushed.  That is not to say that Scarcelli’s ad does not get it’s message across, it just is not up to par with the visual quality of her campaigns other television ads.  Some Democrats at Dirigo Blue have taken issue with the message Scarcelli’s ad presents.  Read more here.

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Pat McGowan’s latest ad attempts to distance himself from the current administration.  Don’t like the way things are going?  McGowan asserts he is not like the “typical politicians” that led to the current situation.  McGowan gives his three points on how he will turn Maine around.  McGowan will provide capitol to business, attract green jobs, cut the size of the legislature, and “hold the line on taxes”.  McGowan’s biggest chance to win is to present a clear difference between himself, Steve Rowe, and Libby Mitchell.  He can never claim to be an outsider as Scarcelli does.  McGowan must present himself as closer to the center than Rowe and Mitchell.  As he has done before, McGowan pushes his tax position, which is in contrast to that of Rowe and Mitchell.  Depending on how much stock you put in recent polls, McGowan may have his work cut out for him.

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Lastly, we have Steve Abbott’s latest ad.  This time Abbott promotes his endorsements from the Maine Today Media, Bangor Daily News, and U.S. Chamber of Commerce.  Abbott picks out quotes on leadership, the different approach he brings to the GOP, his plan to get Mainers to work.  Abbott closes with a similar sentiment that LePage uses, working together.  That is an important point to make.  No matter what happens on the 8th, both parties must unite behind their candidate if they want them to win.  Abbott is prematurely reaching out an olive branch here to unite Republicans behind him should he win the primary.  Given some of the pugilism we’ve seen in the GOP primary, this might not be a bad tactic for Abbott.

Raye took issue with the negative attacks against Otten.  “I have been appalled by the false negative attacks that have no place in Maine politics,” Raye said, “and I appreciate that Les has run a positive issue-oriented campaign focused not on any perceived shortcomings of his opponents, but on his strengths and his vision for Maine.”  It is likely that not everyone agrees with Raye’s assertion that the ads against Otten were completely unwarranted.

As we reported earlier, Assistant Senate Republican Leader Jon Courtney will support Steve Abbott.

What the papers say

Two of Maine’s major news outlets have endorsed candidates as well.  The Maine Today family endorsed Pat McGowan as the Democratic nominee and Steve Abbott as the GOP choice.  MTM pointed to Abbott’s communications skills (“Abbott has the communication skills and personality to bring people together, build consensus, and even twist an arm or two when the occasion demands it”), his ideas on education and fiscal responsibility as influencing their decision.  In choosing McGowan, MTM cited McGowan’s ability to unite the “Two Maines”, legislative plans, and small business experience.  They also rejected the idea that McGowan is Baldacci part 2 (“We reject that suggestion. McGowan clearly is his own person, has his own ideas, and we detect no inclination on his part to simply continue the policies of his predecessor.”)

On the Republican side, the Bangor Daily News chose two candidates; Steve Abbott and Peter Mills.  The BDN appreciated Mills experience in the legislature working with both sides of the aisle.  Mills fiscal responsibility and history of judging each bill on it’s own merits also influenced their decision.  The BDN cited similar reasons for their other choice of Abbott, including that his moderate views appeal to a wider array of voters than other GOP choices.

The BDN found no clear choice among the Democratic candidates.  The offerings for Democratic voters were disappointing according to the BDN.  The BDN chided Democrats for not bringing more diverse choices to the primary.

The Sun Journal has yet to publicly endorse any candidates.

Interesting, because Maine governmental reform – which is sorely needed – is a largely-ignored topic in this state. Pointless because no Legislature (of any party) is likely to look keenly on ideas from the Governor (of any party) on changing how they do business. McGowan put out a simple reform package which we’ve already examined, including some ideas that have been proposed and rejected before. Changing term limits was already rejected by a two-thirds margin by Maine voters, and reducing the size of the House went nowhere in the 124th Legislature.

This got him into a tiff with Scarcelli, who immediately noted that she already proposed reducing the size of the Legislature to the “national average”, per her website. When we pointed out that would leave us with just nine State Senators and twenty-five State Representatives, per our calculations and data gathered from the National Conference of State Legislatures, she called us wrong, saying she meant “national average of states the size of Maine”. Of course, if it’s only an average for states for states of a similar size to Maine, it’s not a national average, but whatever.

Then she changed her website to reflect her latest argument (click for larger version). The version before our conversation is to on top, the version after on bottom. Note the difference between the first sentence under bullet point three:

Of course, by our count, she’s still wrong, though definitely a lot closer. She claims that the average for states the size of Maine would be “70-90″, per her tweet above. Our examination of the four states larger and smaller than Maine – Montana, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New Hampshire, Idaho, Nebraska, West Virgnia, and New Mexico – would lead to a 34-person Senate and a 99-person House. That’s close to her “70-90″, but not really right there – and the four states larger and smaller is a pretty large range, actually. Montana, at 967,440, is 27% smaller than Maine, while at 2,009,671 New Mexico is 52% larger than Maine. The difference between the two is even more startling: New Mexico is more than double the size of Montana.

This little episode illustrates that candidates are wiser to ignore things over which they have little control, like the format of the Legislature. It also shows just how much candidates need to closely examine every single word of their website personally to avoid these sorts of mistakes. Does that sound picky? Sure. Is it too much to expect of someone who wants to be governor? Hardly.

The plan performs the following:

• Reduce the number of legislators by one third
• Increase term limits from 4 consecutive 2-year terms to 3 consecutive 4-year terms
• Move the primaries to September
• Set a limit to the number of bills introduced each session
• Create a Lt. Governor position
• Combine the Dept. of Professional and Financial Regulation, the Dept. of Economic and Community Development, and the Maine State Planning Office to create one Maine Department of Commerce

“This proposal will improve the way we legislate, it will improve our political process, it will improve the way we govern, and it will help to restore faith in government,” McGowan said.  “The voters I have spoken with want this change, and they deserve a break.”

I’ve heard many question why Maine does not have a Lt. Governor.  It is interesting to see a candidate propose adding that position.  The rest of McGowan’s plan is full of reductions or consolidations.  Do the specifics matter to voters?  Possibly, but these aren’t kitchen table issues.  However, if McGowan can clearly express that this could save taxpayers money that may help him convince primary voters.  It does show that McGowan is continuing to press his credentials as a moderate democrat.  Some have expressed that McGowan’s plan to reduce the number of legislators amounts to reducing the level of representative for Mainers.  This, and other parts of the plan only serve to increase the power of the Governor’s office some have said.  McGowan should address these concerns if he hopes to nab those all important independent votes.

Today Steve Rowe began promoting his “Veterans for Rowe” group.  The group is specifically designed to link veteran supporters of Rowe with other veterans.  Rowe supporters in this group made calls to those who have served asking them to vote for Rowe in the Democratic primary.

“I was proud and honored to attend West Point and to serve in the U.S. Army,” said Rowe.  “It was at Fort Bragg that I met my wife, then Army Captain Amanda Long.  It was wonderful to have Amanda by my side at the press conference today, 29 years later.”

“I want our veterans to know that I will continue do what I have done throughout my career – fight for Maine people,” Rowe said. “As Governor, I will make sure veterans have access to affordable health care, housing and quality jobs right here in Maine.”

As I said in my predictions, Rowe is alone in the Democratic field as the only veteran.  He has to leverage these votes.  It’s the home stretch.  Every candidate needs to make all the plays they can.  This one could help Rowe cross the finish line first.

You could just contact a campaign to discern their chances of winning.  That’s if you want to hear the same answer from everyone: we’re going to win.  Matt Gagnon has an interesting analogy for this phenomenon.

From Pine Tree Politics:

Let me put it to you this way – guys, when your girlfriend comes out of the bedroom wearing jeans three sizes too small and asks you, “Do I look fat in this?” What do you say?  You sure as hell don’t tell her the truth.  When a friend of yours who likes to sing tries out for American Idol and looks at you and says, “You think I’m good enough to win, right?” What do you say?  You sure as hell don’t tell the truth.  Similarly, people who you meet and talk to on the campaign trail are forgiving, nice and complimentary – giving you the same impression of the girlfriend who doesn’t think her boyfriend thinks she looks fat, even though she really does

Gagnon says earlier that of course candidates and their volunteers will say they’re doing great.  These people believe in a candidate, or otherwise they wouldn’t devote any time for their campaign.  I’ve got another relationship analogy for this one.  Think about how it feels when you first start a relationship – the honeymoon phase.  This new person is shiny and amazing.  You can’t stop telling your friends about them and generally pining all day long.  People may point out flaws, but you just can’t see them.

Primary campaigns can be a lot like that.  Most people haven’t picked a horse in the race yet.  The most recent poll had 22-30% of likely Democratic voters as still undecided, though it’s likely closer to 40 or 50%.  Those who have chosen their candidate and volunteered for them are a unique bunch.  They are solidly in their candidate’s corner and highly motivated to see them to victory.  When one is strongly behind a candidate, like when beginning a relationship, you want to think the world of them.  You’ll gladly put the blinders on to prolong that good feeling.

That feeling doesn’t generally wear off until later, maybe once they move in with you – or into the Blaine House.

PAT MCGOWAN:
Winning Scenario – Though McGowan started late, he was the first on TV with an ad.  This ad, and others that followed, hammered home McGowan’s strength in the second district.  McGowan continued to press his pledge to not raise taxes.  Democrats recognized his strength as a centrist in a year said to favor fiscal conservatives.  McGowan tapped into resources from the Baldacci machine, giving him an advantage on several points.

Likelihood – McGowan jumped into the race a little later than his competition.  The other Democrats entered during the summer of 2009.  McGowan entered at the beginning of this year.  That gave his opponents a jump on getting their names out there and attracting support.  McGowan trails both Libby Mitchell and Steve Rowe in name recognition.  Rosa Scarcelli isn’t far behind.

If he can get the attention, McGowan’s campaign has the ability to gather a wide area of support.  McGowan is running as a centrist.  His most recent ad features a pledge not to raise taxes, while some of his opponents have proposed new taxes.  McGowan’s pledge is softer than what we’ve seen from some of the GOP, but it doesn’t need to be that firm.  Democrats aren’t necessarily looking for the same sort of anti-tax message that Republicans are.  McGowan also pushes his business credentials over his government experience. The mention of McGowan’s time spent as head of the Small Business Administration has been key to his campaign.  Add McGowan’s business experience to his outdoorsy persona and his strong runs against Olympia Snowe and you have a candidate poised for success.  McGowan’s combination of strengths puts him in a unique position that overlaps all of the other candidates, plus the added 2nd District appeal.

McGowan does not have the same name recognition of Rowe and Mitchell, so if McGowan wants to win he has got to get positive attention.  It does him no good to have a resume that stands out from the pack if no one notices; otherwise he is just an also-ran. Granted, he did have an ad on TV before his competition, but at 1 minute it is expensive to run often. McGowan has roughly $390,000 on hand, more than enough to launch more ads.  McGowan’s association with the Baldacci administration could be a thorn for his campaign.  Right now McGowan is making a similar run as Baldacci did for the Blaine House: as a 2nd District centrist.  A number of people would argue that Baldacci did not follow through on his centrist campaign promises, with Dirigo Health as the largest counter-point to that moderate badge.  Being attached to the Baldacci administration, one could argue that McGowan will pull the same shift once in office, whether that is true or not.

LIBBY MITCHELL:
Winning Scenario – Mitchell used her name recognition to take the nomination.  It allowed her to build a broad base of support from Democratic faithful and Democratic legislators.  Mitchell played up her bipartisan efforts in the legislature.  Mitchell has been a leader in tough times, which she argued successfully would made her most qualified to lead as governor.  Democratic fears that the GOP would dash to the right, also aided Mitchell in securing the nomination.

Likelihood – Mitchell has large appeal with liberal Democrats.  Mitchell supported same-sex marriage, raising the minimum wage, and the environment as a senator.  All of these accomplishments are fresh in voters’ minds.  Where McGowan and Rowe’s period of legislative service may be foggy, Mitchell’s work is current.  Senator Kevin Raye credited Mitchell for working together with Republicans on recent budget struggles.  Mitchell has seen some support from outside of the state.  Bill Clinton has endorsed Mitchell.  Politico has done glowing pieces on Mitchell.  Many polls have been in Mitchell’s favor so far.

Mitchell’s strengths are also her weaknesses.  Her successes are fresh, but so are her failures.  The failure of Mitchell’s Paid Sick Day bill to gain any traction is not some distant memory.  This just happened.  Any vote in favor of raising taxes or a new tax will be easier to recall than any unpopular votes Rowe or McGowan may have made.  Mitchell’s recent connection to Maine’s legislature makes her an easy target for the current economic situation.  There is likely some animosity for the current administration, even among Democrats.  Rowe and McGowan were both part of that administration, but not in the legislature.  Rowe served from 1992-2000.  McGowan served in the House from 1980-1990.  In voter years we might as well be talking about John Q Adams record.  Mitchell is directly linked to the current legislature.  Her successes there will be touted, be the legislature’s failures, Mitchell’s fault or not, will be associated with her.  Mitchell’s leadership position further strengthens that link.

Mitchell’s liberal record could also be a liability.  Many I have spoken with consider her the most liberal choice in the Democratic primary.  Republicans would love to see Mitchell as the nominee.  Sentiments like these speak to questions of Mitchell’s viability in the general election.  Pat McGowan’s centrist run and District 2 appeal and Steve Rowe’s overlapping appeal to the same demographic do not make the race any easier for Mitchell.

ROSA SCARCELLI:
Winning Scenario – As the other Democrats underestimate her, Scarcelli continues to hammer at her opponents weaknesses.  Scarcelli challenged her competitors at every chance she can.  Democrats take notice.  They are looking for a strong leader who will stand up against the Republicans and Democrats alike.  Democratic competition also pay little attention to the anti-insider feeling among the electorate, allowing Scarcelli to use that sentiment to her advantage.  Though McGowan actually takes more votes in the Second District, Scarcelli soundly carries the First District and wins the nomination.

Likelihood – Scarcelli presents a distinct option to her competition as a businesswoman who hasn’t been involved in the current administration.  Scarcelli is a self-described “outsider” in a race with three other insiders.  Scarcelli has attempted to use that to her advantage.  Clean election funding and gun control are just two of the issues Scarcelli has challenged her opponents on.  Scarcelli has tried to control the Democratic conversation and coax her opponents to follow her leads.  Steve Rowe responded to Scarcelli’s call for a comment on mandatory background checks for gun sales, but candidates have ignored most other challenges.

The bold bombs Scarcelli has thrown into the Democratic primary have not always aided her campaign.  The previously mentioned background check question also mentioned domestic violence.  Calling attention to this actually highlighted Rowe’s record fighting domestic violence as Attorney General.  These challenges from the Scarcelli campaign have not been well received by all Democrats.  Many Democrats I have spoken with don’t mind candidates debating each other, but find Scarcelli’s “attacks” unnecessary.  It has gotten to the point that some Democrats have questioned if she is a “team player” or even in the right party.  While those sentiments go too far, it is important to note that this is the perception some Democrats have of Scarcelli.

Scarcelli’s stance on Clean Election funding drew fire from Democrats.  Scarcelli said in January that “in light of current economic circumstances, I decided to fund my campaign the old fashioned way”; i.e., not run as a publicly funded candidate.  Scarcelli also took exception to Clean candidates saying the legislature was obligated to fund their campaigns.  This release generated many comments at Dirigo Blue, most saying that Scarcelli wanted to have it both ways.

Dan Billings said the following on Scarcelli’s clean election stance:

This is a cynical political maneuver by Scarcelli that shows she is just another politician and not an outsider with a new approach. She has said that she is not critical of legislative candidates who take public financing. She is only critical of her opponents – even though it costs more to fund legislative campaigns over a four year period than it does the campaign for Governor. She is trying to have it both ways by endorsing public financing, while criticizing those who participate in the system.

At the time I said these “bombs” could go one of two ways.  They could help show Scarelli as a viable alternative or backfire and become major gaffs.  Since then it seems the latter is true.   Democrats have questioned Scarcelli’s experience.  Her position as an outsider has been challenged as well.  AJ Higgins wrote an unflattering article on Scarcelli recently saying perhaps she is in the wrong party.  The reception of Scarcelli’s platform amendment at the Democratic Convention was not well received.  The appeal of an outsider has been overestimated in this primary season.  While it will be a factor for Republicans, Democrats don’t seem to be clamoring for someone without legislative experience.  On the contrary, many Democrats see that not just as a strength, but a must have.  Being detached from the Baldacci administration will bring some votes, but in the Democratic primary it will likely be less of a factor than in the general election.

STEVEN ROWE:
Winning Scenario -  Though he was last to air a television commercial, Rowe quietly assembled a strong grassroots team.  Actively courting specific demographics and party insiders, Rowe launched a blitz in the final two weeks of the primary.  Rowe gave speeches across the state during the home stretch.  Supporters knocked on many doors in key areas.  Since he had held off spending, Rowe had a decent war chest to act and react to his opponents tactics.  Mitchell gave Rowe a fight until the last.  Late June 8th Mitchell conceded, making Rowe the Democratic nominee for governor.

Likelihood – Rowe, like Libby Mitchell, has a decent amount of name recognition.  Undecided voters I have spoken with always mention Rowe as a name they are considering, though not other candidates.  Even voters from other parties Rowe used his name recognition early on to gather support for his campaign.  Last December, 63 state legislators endorsed Rowe.  Early in the race, Rowe began to target specific demographics.  Women Rowe-ing aimed to attract women to support Rowe, important with Mitchell and Scarcelli in the race.  There is also Generation Rowe which targets young voters.  Rowe also has other specific groups of supporters voters can join; teachers, sportsmen (effective if they push this against McGowan), environmentalists and more.  All of these groups could lead to a significant amount of grassroots support for Rowe and cut into bases of support for the competition.

Like Mitchell and McGowan, Rowe has legislative and government experience.  Rowe served as speaker of the House and as Attorney General.  Unlike other Democrats in the race, Rowe is the only one with military experience.  This is important.  Military service highlights many positive qualities that could assist a candidate in governing.  Rowe has mentioned his Army service in the past and will continue to do so in this campaign.

Rowe has been known to speak his mind.  This can be advantageous when it comes to issues like gay marriage and domestic abuse.  However, this election will primarily focus on fiscal issues.  Here Rowe has made some comments that may not be popular with Democrats, and certainly not with Republicans and some Independents.  During the recent budget struggles, Rowe rejected some of Governor Baldacci’s cuts.  Rowe advocated raising Maine’s tobacco tax to offset loss of revenue.  Liberal democrats may not be turned off by this, but moderates may look to McGowan with his “no tax pledge”.

Projected Vote Totals

This is not easy.  Even though we can see the finish line, the primary crystal ball is still cloudy.  After speaking with many Democrats, including some who attended the convention, it is more clear who people aren’t voting for then who they are.  “I’m not voting for X, but I’m not sure who I’ll support.”  There are still a lot of undecided votes up for grabs.  We are likely to see a blitz of ads, speeches, and handshaking in the remaining weeks.  It is possible to see some crafty tactics that will shake up the race.  There is an overall lack of excitement about the Democratic field, a sentiment I’ve heard personally and expressed here by the Bangor Daily News.  Where the Republicans have more of a distinct choice between candidates, and a larger field, the Democrats have four candidates what the BDN pointed out was a relatively similar field.  A bold speech or an unfortunate gaff could make or break a campaign.  Without any further exposition, here are my predictions for the Democratic Primary.

Steve Rowe: 33%

Libby Mitchell: 28%

Pat McGowan: 24%

Rosa Scarcelli: 15%

Now in 2010 we have a wide open primary and four genuinely qualified candidacies that represent the many different layers and aspirations of Democratic activists, operatives, constituencies, and even geographic interests. Is there pent up pressure and energy that will draw in a large voter turnout and propel one candidate to a victory that launches that individual into the general election ready to battle with vigor a Republican that may be riding a faux populist tide and an Independent challenger that could limit the election victor to an unpredictable plurality win? It doesn’t seem possible but the answer appears to be no. The signs are that we have a primary contest that may not be engaging to voters, that is too cautious in scope to inspire voters, and even seems invisible in terms of actual lawn signs.

For every prediction, there currently seems to be a plausible counter prediction. For every pathway to the nomination there are roadblocks. Yet we will have a nominee and here are four completely fictitious fantasy news reports for June 9, 2010. Each contain a bit of campaign speculation about how the headline might get written; I hope all four candidates simply take such conjecture as one more request for a more specifics driven effort to reach voters.

June 9 Headlines

North Country Carries McGowan to Victory

Patrick McGowan was victorious in yesterday’s Democratic primary for governor due to his stronger margin wins in the northern part of the state. The seven most northern and eastern counties gave him just enough votes to negate fairly even splits of about a quarter of the vote elsewhere in the state except in Cumberland and York counties where his opponents ran stronger. But capturing 15% to 25% of the vote in the southern tier of Maine kept his campaign toward the nomination on track.

In the closing days of the campaign, McGowan abandoned the “service club and chicken dinner” and toured the state stumping to many small groups in smaller communities from the back of a pickup truck. His staff believes that direct contact moved him forward little by little, especially in many rural areas where no candidate paid much attention.

It was a late night in all four candidate camps with only enough later north country reports giving McGowan a definitive edge at around midnight after early alternating leads by Steve Rowe and Rosa Scarcelli followed by Libby Mitchell. With 99.9 % of precincts reporting McGowan won with 29% of the vote. Rowe and Scarcelli were each near 24% of the over 106,000 votes cast and were trailed by Mitchell at around 22%.

McGowan spoke to supporters and opposing party players early in the morning at a Democratic unity breakfast; “I appreciate the confidence given me in particular regions of the state but I will not let geography define our general election effort. I plan to pay strong attention to important issues in northern Maine but I intend to be governor for the entire state. I’m humble enough to know that our win margin was slight and that each of my friends who also ran in this race had a pretty equal range of support. That is why I have asked each of them, and each has responded yes, to play a significant role in my administration at the cabinet level. We are going to move all of Maine forward together.”

According to University political expert Rand Snider; “Patrick McGowan will need the support of his former opponents as this campaign heats up. Steve Abbot’s more convincing win on the Republican side is a real factor.” Voters seem less enthusiastic, Sarah Chase, getting off her overnight shift at LL Bean quipped; “I feel like I’m at the ice cream take out and the choices are vanilla or vanilla.”

Libby Mitchell Narrowly Wins Democratic Nod

Elizabeth Mitchell became her party’s first female nominee for governor after barely outpacing Steven Rowe by about 1,000 votes out of over 106,000 cast statewide. Mitchell and Rowe ran neck and neck all through last evening while McGowan and Scarcelli ran several points behind the two leaders.

Exit polls indicate that fairly equal levels of name recognition and familiarity with Libby Mitchell and Steve Rowe were significant factors. Still while name recognition was even with Rowe, her prospects seemed to be fading fast according to recent polls closer to the election. Mitchell switched gears in the last weeks of the race to become highly specific in terms of policies and initiatives she would undertake and it appears to have closed the gap.

While Steve Rowe’s concession did not come until 11:30 PM along with a statement that he would not ask for a recount, the margin of victory for Mitchell was apparent in retrospect when most of her home turf towns in Kennebec County reported an edge that held up the rest of the evening. With 99.9% of precincts reporting, Mitchell won 28% of the vote and Rowe was only 1% behind. McGowan and Scarcelli each captured about 22% of the electorate.

Mitchell spoke to voters last evening at her victory party; “I am very grateful for this opportunity to represent the people of Maine in the forthcoming campaign. We have significant issues that require leadership that will work for all the people and during the next five months I will make every effort to listen to your needs and tell you how I will respond as governor.”

Articulating her message clearly will be greatly needed as she opposes Peter Mills, the Republican nominee. An early shot across the bow of both major party campaigns came from a spokesman for Independent Elliot Cutler; “Here we have two State Senators, that have been involved in these problems all along, now barely winning their respective nominations with less that 30% of the vote…that sounds like an urgent need to put forward new solutions for 70% of Maine voters.”

Voters Respond to Rowe’s Resume

Steven Rowe won a convincing victory in yesterday’s Democratic primary for governor. Swept into an early commanding lead, he led his nearest opponent, Elizabeth Mitchell by 13% by racking up 36% of the vote and a margin of almost 14,000 votes out of the 106,000 votes cast in the contest. With 99.9% of precincts reporting, Rowe received over 38,700 votes.

Further down in the results, Rosa Scarcelli trailed Libby Mitchell’s 23% by 1% for 22% of the vote and Pat McGowan was held to under 18%. Steve Rowe won 10 out of 16 counties in the state and rolled up impressive margins in Cumberland and York counties. He led from the beginning of the election reporting and that lead never wavered. All his opponents had conceded by 9:30 PM.

The Rowe campaign seemed to be a steady march toward the nomination just like last night’s win. The Rowe campaign staff also built the best inside game plan to identify their supporters and make sure they got to the polls according to one insider who additionally indicated that absolutely nothing was taken for granted.

Steven Rowe addressed his supporters at 10:00 PM; “I am extremely grateful for this vote of confidence and I have spoken by phone to Libby, Rosa, and Pat to thank them for a civil but solid campaign about ideas and solutions. I will strive to take the critical discussions in which we engaged into the general election. Our efforts must stay focused on our higher ideals and pragmatic approaches to the challenges that face Maine in order to win.”

Rowe’s victory statement seems to be addressed in particular to surprise Republican nominee, Paul LePage, who won an upset victory last evening and taunted the Democratic nominee as having a resume for the same old tax and spend politics as usual. But according to Andrew Smith, with Pine Exit Polling, that resume may well be Rowe’s strength; “Our exit interviewing showed that a lot of Democratic primary voters were familiar with some aspect of Steve Rowe’s background and over 75% the voters who cast ballots for other Democrats named him as their strong second choice. I think he moves into the general campaign with the benefit of party unity.”

An Outside Win Propels Rosa Scarcelli Forward

‘Rosa for ME’ was last night’s victory cry at a celebration of her win of the Democratic nomination as an outsider. Rosa Scarcelli ran reasonably well in southern Maine but also won Penobscot and Franklin counties to win 30% of the total statewide vote. She was trailed by Steve Rowe by 4 percentage points. Over 31,000 out of over 106,000 votes cast went to her. The other two “insider” candidates Mitchell and McGowan hovered around 21% – 22% with 99.9% of precincts reporting.

Scarcelli’s campaign had been running into some obstacles until the convention. Inside staffers began to see that while her outsider message might appeal to voters in the general election, it was a growing liability within the confines of a primary that had a lot of dedicated volunteers working hard for known candidates with deep and long term party connections. Being less than enthusiastically received at the state convention was an eye-opener.

After the convention, Scarcelli began a more protracted effort to reach out to party members. While she did not stop meeting voters at diners or connecting with business people at service club events, she held daily hour-long online topic-specific conferences with many new media reporters and bloggers as well. Her openness and ability to engage in deeper discussions seemed to result in more positive background buzz for her outreach efforts.

However, Rosa Scarcelli was back as an outsider in her 10:00 PM victory statement; “I’m truly thankful that voters in this primary saw a need for change and a new perspective on how things need to work in state government. My campaign going forward will build on this new energy to reboot Augusta and make it work for all Maine citizens.”

It appears to be a campaign of outsiders now with Scarcelli facing off against Republican nominee Les Otten. Veteran political observer, Shelia Samson noted; “The dynamics of this race are going to be pretty interesting. Here you have two strong business personalities with little in the way of government experience who are going to run up against a third outsider, Elliot Cutler, who can lay claim to both government and business competence. This appears to be the start of a three way race.”

Cross-Posted at Dirigo Blue.  You may find Derek Viger’s predictions here.