The Mills campaign announced yesterday the formation of the Mills for Maine Advisory Committee. “My greatest challenge in forming an advisory committee is that I know so many great thinkers and respected community leaders,” said Mills.  He went on to say, “I’m honored by their support and know that together we can overhaul state government and lead Maine’s transition to a modern economy.”  Mills has assembled a team of supporters featuring lawyers, educators, health care workers, and business people.  Campaign manager Marc Pitman commented, “I’m impressed both with the high quality and wide breadth of people that support Peter and his plan to rebuild Maine. Not only are these people impressive in their own right, they’re also a lot of fun to work with!”

Courtesy Marvel Comics

John H. Reed, 67th Governor of Maine, appears at the top of the list.  Reed taps two demographics, seniors and northern Maine.  Anyone much below retirement age, barring political enthusiasts, likely have little knowledge of Reed’s work.  At the other end of the spectrum, Mills has the support of Steve Robinson, chair of the Bowdoin College Republicans.  Fletcher Kittredge, Great Works Internet CEO and Three Ring Binder sponsor, Rep. Lance Harvell (R-Farmington), Rep. Tom Saviello (R-Wilton) Rep. Meredith Strang Burgess (R-Cumberland), Senator Richard Rosen (R-Bucksport), Senator Chris Rector (R-Thomaston), Tom Dunne, writer of “Dirigo: Fix it up or shut it down”, and Larry Warren, the man behind Maine Huts & Trails are just a few of the others supporting Mills.

The support of Tom Dunne and others is a clear atempt to signal Mills is not as liberal on health care – or in general – as some opponents would like to paint him.  The large number of business professionals, GOP legislators, as well as a peppering of supporters involved in education, health, various aspects of the environment so one thing; Mills remains a moderate Republican choice in the gubernatorial race.  However, several of his legislative supporters are conservatives from his area, as well. Last fall we said Mills’ record remained socially moderate and fiscally responsible.  There are a few outliers of course, but his record on fiscal issues has remained relatively consistent.  During our interview with Mills, he spoke of accountability in government, altering our regulatory environment, and prioritizing spending.

There are many internet activists who decry even the mention of Mills.  To them he does not pass the conservative litmus test, which is partly true, if you put any stock in that short of thing.  However, one should not completely judge a candidates level of support by what they see online.  Mills moderate positions make him a strong candidate in a statewide election.  Much of what Mills has to say will likely resonate with the voting populace at large.  Then again, so will much of what his competition has to offer will too.  If the GOP are looking for a candidate that is a strict fiscal conservative, not the same as being fiscally responsible, Mills is not that candidate.  Mills has not been a fan of overspending, big debts, or gimmicks to solve budge issues.  Mills has not consistently advocated for the smaller government that fiscal conservatives support,

Mills said of his vote in favor of same-sex marriage, “I simply voted what I thought was right.”  In June, voters will do just that.  Mills is hoping his team of supporters can convince voters that he is the right choice.  The bow ties can’t hurt either.

Abbott is starting off a number of notable endorsements that represent a cross-section of the Maine GOP, from moderate to conservative, establishment to outsider. Here’s a sampling:

Dean Scontras, 2008 1st District Congressional primary candidate;
Rep. Josh Tardy, House Republican Leader;
Peter Cianchette, 2002 Gubernatorial nominee;
Rep. John Robinson (R-Raymond);
Tim Woodcock, 2002 2nd District Congressional primary candidate.

You can view the full list here.

We already were aware of Peter Cianchette’s support, and Josh Tardy is not a huge surprise, either. Seeing support from Dean Scontras is interesting, as he’s well-liked by conservatives, while Robinson is the most conservative member of the Appropriations Committee. Woodcock, meanwhile, came in second to moderate Kevin Raye in the 2002 primary. Abbott is clearly trying to demonstrate that he has a broad range of support throughout the party, and not just amongst moderates or insiders.

“We believe the Governor deserves credit for his refusal to include tax increases in the supplemental budget, but we need to thoroughly explore the details. We are particularly concerned about proposals that would push the state’s budget problems to the next Governor and the next Legislature, and further burden municipalities.

The fact is state government is still poised for a catastrophic fall off the financial cliff when the federal stimulus comes to an end. While the stimulus has helped to achieve short-term balance in the state budget, it has also tied our hands in making the decisions necessary to establish long-term savings.

Mainers shouldering the burden of the high cost of government are themselves struggling to feed their families, keep a roof over their heads and keep up with the bills. They cannot afford to pay for benefits that are oftentimes better than what they earn themselves.

As we move forward, Republicans in the Legislature will work to achieve a responsible and affordable state government.”

Though the Greens have been active in Maine for some time they haven’t had anyone in Augusta since John Eder left in 2006. The Greens are working hard to prove they are a viable alternative to Maine’s Democrats.

The Maine Clean Election Fund changes, sponsored by House Speaker Hannah Pingree, were altered to “to make the system more attractive for major-party candidates” according to Pingree. The changes, categorized as hard but fair by supporters, raised $5 contribution requirements from 2,500 to 3,250 and added a requirement of $40,000 in up to $100 donations. Proponents of the bill have said that the $40,000 requirement keeps significant taxpayer money only going to viable candidates.

“The argument that clean election funds should be reserved for “viable” candidates only, suggests that “viability” is determined by the ability to raise large sums of money,” said Green Party Chair Anna Trevorrow. “The concept behind clean elections funding has always been that candidates ought to compete based on their policy ideas and the values they represent. The new changes undermine that fundamental concept by mandating a monetary threshold for competitors.” Trevorrow went on to say that this is not just about the Green Party, but that the changes keep clean election funds from any candidate who is not most institutionalized.

In the Portland Phoenix, gubernatorial candidate Lynne Williams labeled the Clean Election Fund changes a “paradox, in that the Clean Election system exists to take money out of politics, but now requires fundraising.” Williams went on to say that “The paradox comes from the fact that the goal of passing Clean Elections was to open up the opportunity to run for office to a broader spectrum of candidates than just those who are either independently wealthy – we still get those, as you can see from the currently declared candidates – or connected to special interests and individuals with money – and we get those too.” There were also strong words from Lynne Williams for the bill’s sponsor, Hannah Pingree.

Hannah Pingree herself admits that this “opening up” was not meant to include Greens and Independents when she “says the move was intended “to make the system more attractive for major-party candidates.”  ” The facts stated by the [Portland Phoenix] reporter, following this comment, are indicative of the hypocrisy of the Maine Democratic Party and their leadership – of the six gubernatorial contenders who have used Clean Election funding since the system was set up, three have been Republicans, one was an independent and two were Greens. No Democrats have used the system to run for governor.” Furthermore, it is the height of hypocrisy for Pingree to be testifying in Congress in favor of “clean elections,” when her own party does not even participate in the system at the statewide level.

Since Williams made her statement, Democrats Donna Dion and Libby Mitchell have both chosen to run as Clean Election candidates.

Representative Dianne Russel, who serves on both the Legal and Veteran’s Affairs committees that helped create the Clean Election bill, stated the changes will actually strengthen third parties in Maine.

It is important to understand that we chose to change the ballot access requirements for the parties to ensure third (and someday maybe fourth) parties were still able to play a vital role in our democracy. I want to see them build the momentum they need to have an increasingly profound impact on our marketplace of ideas.

Representative Russel also sympathizes with those frustrated over the new requirements. “ To be clear,” said Russel, “I didn’t want to change the system, but we were faced with legitimate budget concerns. If we did not make reasonable, fair changes to this system, the gubernatorial public financing system itself could have ended up in jeopardy.”

Representative Russel believes that the changes to the system will make it more attractive to viable candidates, thereby helping to “[remove] money and its influence from politics and governing.” Representative Russel also said a candidate’s financing choices will “play an important role in who I do or do not endorse in the primary race.”

Late last month the Greens joined the Republicans in opposing LD 1495, the tax reform bill. The Maine Greens argued that the bill was in fact less progressive than the current tax structure, hitting low-income Mainers in their already thin wallets. The Maine Greens have launched a campaign against the tax reform bill called “No Flat Tax for ME.” Maine Democrats responded to the Green Party’s move by saying, “Beginning in 2006 when John Eder’s reelection campaign accepted the help of Republican leader Josh Tardy, the Greens in Portland have moved closer to the Republican Party.“ In the Portland Press Herald, House Majority Leader John Potti was quoted as saying, “ The fact that we’re getting hit on both the right and the left confirms it’s good middle-of-the-road policy.”

Anna Trevorrow said the Green Party opposes the tax reform because “flat taxes are by nature inequitable, and the Green Party believes that those most capable of paying back into the system ought to compensate to some degree for those less able.”  Lynne Williams felt the removal of an increase to the real estate transfer tax left her no choice but to oppose the tax reform bill.  Trevorrow and Williams both disagree with comments made by Democrats after the Greens came out in opposition to the tax reform.  “The Dems had to dig deep to find this skewed accusation, and even at that, came up false.” said Trevorrow in reference to comments in a Maine Democrat press release.  Trevorrow went on to say,

Eder never “accepted” Republican help.  In 2006 a PAC headed by Josh Tardy made independent expenditures that went to a mailing promoting John Eder’s reelection because they saw his as a swing-vote seat and would rather it go to a Green Independent than have to face a Democratic majority in the House.  The PAC crafted the mailer by itself, without Eder’s knowledge.

Forming a partnership toward a common goal is nothing new for the Green Party.  The Maine Green Independent Party has worked with the Maine Heritage Policy Center to repeal school consolidation.  “If my party and the Maine Republican Party agree on this issue, great,” said Lynne Williams. “There will be many things coming up that we will disagree on.  There is a reason that the word “Independent” is included in our name.”

All of these high profile stances have pushed the Maine Greens to the front of political news.  That’s just what they want.  Maine Greens are seeking to prove they are a viable alternative for voters.  “We are not left or right, but out front,” said Williams.  They are reaching out through the grassroots to challenge the Democrats for their piece of the political pie.  “I have been working with these communities to fight back the power establishment in this state, which is heavily tied into the Democratic party. Most importantly, my campaign and our party stand for a philosophy that believes that people are more important than profit.  That is what will eventually bring us to the forefront.”  While the Democrats profess to be progressive, the Greens say they will be their conscience, challenging them to walk the walk or lose the votes.

There are several potential Democratic candidates for governor who have yet to announce whether they’ll enter the race. Commissioner of Conservation Pat McGowan, Senate President Elizabeth “Libby” Mitchell and Commissioner of Economic & Community Development John Richardson are all considered strong potential candidates.

Senator Mitchell, unlike Mario Cuomo, has plans and plans to make plans. Senator Mitchell said she would be deciding soon, likely making an official announcement next week – the same week we hear Senator Peter Mills will make it official. Mitchell’s entry would make an already-crowded Democratic primary field even more competitive.

Pat McGowan would likely be coming at Steven Rowe from a more conservative position, looking to go after the socially conservative Democrats who are especially dominant in the Second Congressional District.  McGowan – who represented Canaan in the Legislature – would be the northernmost Democrat in the race.  McGowan mounted two close campaigns against Olympia Snowe in 1990 & 1992, when she was still in the U.S. House.

John Richardson, a former Speaker of the House, has made valuable political connections during his time as a Commissioner, and could organize quite a campaign.  He is well-known to party activists and has extensive experience in government.

The question for Richardson, McGowan and Mitchell will be how much Democrats want to search outside Augusta for a candidate.  It could be that a less well known candidate with less Augusta experience will rise to the forefront and outperform much more familiar names – what one might call the Barack Obama strategy.  He beat a field of very well-known and well-established opponents; could the same happen in Maine?

For Republicans, there are three potential candidates who would be likely to have a major impact on the race: Steve Abbott, Senator Susan Collins’ chief of staff; Kevin Raye, Senate Republican Leader; and Josh Tardy, House Republican Leader.

We are hearing continuously from our sources that Kevin Raye will not run. This fits, since he has one term left in the Maine Senate before he is forced out by term limits. He could focus all his energy on electing three more Senate Republicans, and becoming Senate President, if he does not run for Governor. We have not heard about Josh Tardy’s plans, but he would likely need to make a decision soon, well before the Second Regular Session of the 124th Legislature begins next year. Tardy does have the luxury of time; at 41 he could certainly wait to run for higher office.

If Steve Abbott runs, it might make sense for him to make an announcement during the upcoming August Congressional recess. Then again, Senator Collins may have asked him to stay on until at least after the healthcare debate is over, which could push him back to after the Senate adjourns for the year. Abbott’s national connections and experience with GOP primaries would instantly make him a very strong candidate.

For both parties, it seems likely that there will be a five or six person primary field, meaning that one can win with 20% – 25% of the vote and it’s anyone’s race.  Of course, it is always difficult to judge elections this far in advance: well-known people don’t run or don’t do well and lesser-known candidates emerge as frontrunners.  At this point in 2005, it looked likely that Daniel Wathen and David Flanagan would launch gubernatorial bids.  At this point in 2007, many analysts wouldn’t have considered Barack Obama a top-tier presidential candidate.  So, political crystal balls are always murky – but hey, we’ll make sure you remember if we turn out to be right!

With a large primary, you could win with 20% of the vote, so it’s anyone’s race. The last time there was a crowded Republican statewide primary in Maine was in 1994, when the Blaine House was open after McKernan. That year the GOP had an eight-way primary and Susan Collins won with 21.3% of the vote.

Crowded primary fields are unpredictable, especially in the Maine GOP. Collins defeated Lipman by less than 4,000 votes in 1994 out of almost 90,000 votes cast. If she’d lost, Maine could have ended up looking very, very different over the next 15 years.

This year, we expect that a competitive Republican gubernatorial primary would be in the 75,000 – 80,000 vote range, so the difference between the top two finishers could be even smaller. So far, all of the declared Republicans look like top-tier candidates. There doesn’t seem yet to be a minor candidate, and there are quite a few plausible top-tier candidates yet to declare their intentions:

Steve Abbott, Senator Collins’ Chief of Staff
Peter Cianchette, former U.S. Ambassador to Costa Rica, 2002 nominee
Kevin Hancock, businessman
Paul LePage, mayor of Waterville
Kevin Raye, Senate Republican Leader
Josh Tardy, House Republican Leader
Peter Vigue, businessman

So maybe the GOP will have another eight-way primary. There are a variety of interlocking relationships in there, of course – all six of those candidates are highly unlikely to run against each other. Raye and Tardy seem to get along very well; we don’t think they’d run against each other in a primary. We also can’t imagine Cianchette running against Vigue. Others may emerge as well that we haven’t considered, of course.

In a PPH profile earlier this year, Steve Abbott was mentioned as a possible gubernatorial candidate, and he certainly would be formidable. He’s well-known and well-connected amongst GOP activists and fundraisers, and would instantly be a top-tier candidate.

Peter Cianchette would be in a similarly strong starting position. He would face some criticism about how he handled the 2006 race, dropping in and then out, but could overcome it. Many Republicans around Maine are still loyal to Cianchette.

Kevin Hancock (of Hancock Lumber) would be a bit of a wild card. Although he was often mentioned earlier, he doesn’t seem to be setting up any sort of a run. With three other businessmen running, he may have decided to sit this one out.

Paul LePage, the mayor of Waterville, would face a tough race. Although his victories in a Democratic town are impressive, he barely won re-election and isn’t well-known statewide. He made some noise about running earlier this year, but hasn’t yet followed through.

Kevin Raye is already very well-known from his 2002 Congressional run, and has made a name for himself as Senate Republican Leader. A former aide to Olympia Snowe, it would be interesting if both he and Abbott were in the race, a sort of proxy battle.

Josh Tardy is also well-known to GOP activists, though perhaps not to the general public. The successive failures of the GOP in the Maine House campaigns may be a notch against him, but they were difficult years. It would be interesting to see how many members of his caucus would instantly support him in a gubernatorial primary.

Peter Vigue is another successful businessman with no political record. He’s also known as an idea man who’s been working on innovative policy not just in his company, but for the state.

As these other potential candidates make decisions, current candidates Matt Jacobson, Peter Mills, Les Otten and Bruce Poliquin will have to adjust their strategies accordingly. Jacobson, Poliquin and Otten all entered early because they could afford to, both in dollars and time. None are current office-holders and all could take time away from their careers to campaign full-time a year early. That will serve them well if this becomes a scrum, as they will be considered serious candidates even before the crowded field emerges. After campaigning hard, Jacobson and Poliquin have put themselves into top-tier status; Mills and Otten almost start there. None of them will be pushed down to minor-candidate status just because someone else enters the race.

So, the GOP field is still nebulous, but will likely become very crowded. The game in the GOP primary will be to work hard, don’t screw up, and you have a good shot at winning it. All candidates are basically equal, and it’s everyone’s race to lose. Any one thing, on any one day, could be what pushes you underwater or over the top. In some senses there’s a very small margin of error in a race like this, because every single vote, every single donation, every single volunteer counts.

The game in the Democratic primary – which we’ll take a look at later – is very, very different.

We need to correct these issues before they becomes a problem, not after.

Apart from the Governor, Maine has three constitutional officers: The Secretary of State, the State Treasurer, and the Attorney General. As it stands, these three offices are elected by the Legislature in joint convention. They should be elected directly by the people, just like the Governor.

In fact, only twelve Secretaries of State are not directly elected. The Secretary of State is only appointed by the Legislature in Maine, New Hampshire, and Tennessee. Only 7 Attorneys General are not directly elected, and Maine is the only one of those states in which the AG is appointed by the Legislature.

This means that effectively, these important constitutional officers are answerable to their own party and their own ambition, not the people of Maine. For the most part, we’ve had fine people serve in these offices – but that just means we’ve been lucky. These offices, which oversee everything from state finances to justice to motor vehicles and elections, need to be truly independent and answerable to the people.

There is no legitimate argument against these people being elected. One can argue that it makes the offices partisan – but no more partisan than the current set-up. One could argue that it means unqualified people could be elected – but there’s nothing to restrain that now, either. There’s no reason to think that 186 legislators are inherently wiser than a million voters. Other states have elected persons to these posts and done quite well.

It would be better for the two major political parties as well. If someone were elected to statewide office before they ran for Governor or U.S. Senate, they’d run a better campaign and do a better job if elected. They’d have experience representing the whole state, and the diverse set of interests that entails.

The issue with gubernatorial succession in Maine is even more ridiculous. As it stands, the President of the State Senate is the first in line of succession to the Governor. This makes no sense. The first issue with this is the leaping down from someone elected by the whole state to a person elected by 1/35th of the state (and their partisan colleagues in the Senate). It would be as if the United States had no Vice President, and Harry Reid was first in line to succeed President Obama.

Another problem with this system is that it could lead to dramatic policy changes that the people did not vote for. We have seen this in Arizona, another state without a Lieutenant Governor. When Governor Janet Napolitano, a Democrat, became U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security, she was succeeded by Secretary of State Jan Brewer, a Republican. Suddenly, the politics of the state shifted dramatically in a way that the people did not intend.

If we create a Lieutenant Governor who is elected on a ticket with the Governor, this problem would be less egregious. We would have someone of similar political beliefs (probably of the same party), also elected statewide by the voters at the last election. This individual would be chosen by the gubernatorial candidate but approved by voters in the end, just like the President and Vice President.

We suggest that the Lieutenant Governor be a part-time job, only serving full-time concurrently with the Legislature. This would not only reduce cost, but bring a much-needed voice of the everyday Mainer to a gubernatorial administration. A citizen Lieutenant Governor might be unique in these United States, but in a good, innovative way.

The Legislature had a chance to send the idea of an elected Attorney General and Secretary of State to the voters this legislative session. The AG proposal (L.D. 604) failed 19-16 in the Senate, along almost straight party lines (Democratic Sen. Barry Hobbins of York voted for it), and 90-52 in the House, with two Democrats (Rep. Michael Cary of Lewiston and Rep. Linda Cohen of Portland) and three Republicans (Rep. Jim Campbell of Newfield, Rep. Jayne Giles of Belfast, and Rep. Lance Harvell of Farmington) flipping sides.  The proposal to elect the SecState (L.D. 605) was even more divided, with a straight party-line vote in the Senate, and another lopsided vote in the House. The defections were the same in the House on L.D. 605 as on L.D. 604, with the addition of Rep. Jarrod Crockett (R-Bethel) joining Campbell, Giles, and Harvell as Republicans voting against.

As far as we can see, there was no proposal made to elect the State Treasurer.

The final change in this area that must be made is in the filling of a vacancy in the office of U.S. Senator.  Currently in Maine, as sadly in most states, a U.S. Senate vacancy is filled by the Governor through appointment.  Like the election of Maine’s constitutional officers, this is a holdover from early history, when U.S. Senators were appointed by state legislators.  This made sense in the 19th century, when statewide elections were extraordinarily difficult to administer.  Now it does not, and it could lead to the same sort of political problems in succession as not having a Lieutenant Governor, as Dan Billings noted in a column.

State Senator Bill Diamond (D-Cumberland) introduced a bill to fix this, L.D. 226, and Senate Republican Leader Kevin Raye and House Republican Leader Josh Tardy joined him as co-sponsors. This bill, like the other reasonable reforms to Maine’s government mentioned in this post, whimpered off to die in the corner, hungry and alone.

While we praise Democrats Michael Carey and Linda Cohen for bravely braking with their party on a losing vote, reform shouldn’t be a partisan issue. These bills should have been passed for the good of the people, leaving partisan politics aside.  We were hoping when this session began that the Legislature would seriously address these issues in a bipartisan fashion, instead of shunting them aside. We hoped that the Legislature might try to fix something before it becomes a problem, not after, instead of playing partisan politics.

We were wrong.

In the Kennebec Journal/Morning Sentinel House Republican Leader Josh Tardy wrote “I wonder how it would have fared if it were named ‘An Act to Increase Taxes for 85,000 Maine Families.’ That’s just as accurate as the real title.”

Meanwhile, in the Portland Press Herald, Democrat Albert DiMillo wrote that “Democrats should be asking their representatives why they supported a Bush-like tax cut for the rich that not only didn’t give tax reductions for many middle-class taxpayers but actually increased taxes for thousands.” This column is especially interesting to us, as it plays in to our prediction from yesterday.

Then came the news that the GOP had formally filed a challenge to the new law, and that legislative leaders Senator Kevin Raye (R-Hancock) and Representative Josh Tardy (R-Newport) had signed their names to the veto.  Maine Democratic Party Executive Arden Manning immediately hit them back, contending that the Maine GOP was “veering further to right, catering to the Party’s ultra-conservative activist base and leaving moderate Mainers out in the cold.” This is a curious claim to us, given that a Democrat denounced the tax package earlier that day in the state’s largest newspaper. We wonder how Mr. DiMillo feels about Mr. Manning’s statement.

The day ended with Tardy sending out a press release based on his column, reiterating that “85,000 Maine families will see their taxes increase.”

This is getting good.

See full letter after the jump.

Date: Fri, 19 Jun 2009

From: Arden Manning

Subject: Another People’s Veto?

Maine Democratic Party

Dear [REDACTED],

Just last week, the Democrats in the Maine Legislature and Governor Baldacci capped off a productive Legislative session by passing a historic tax reform package. This tax reform package cuts taxes for Maine families by lowering Maine’s income tax rate from 8.5% to around 6.5% and ensures that visitors to Maine pay their fair share.

Just this morning, an application was filed for a people’s veto referendum aimed at rolling back these new tax cuts for Maine families. I know what you’re thinking–this must be some sort of right wing fringe group that wants this repealed.  Nope. Application signers included Senate Republican Leader Kevin Raye and House Republican Leader Josh Tardy.

For years Republican talking points have said they are the party of smaller government and cutting taxes. The truth is that this session it was Democrats in Augusta who cut spending and income taxes. And in response, the Maine GOP, led by Raye and Tardy, has launched an effort which would roll back these tax cuts which would essentially raise income taxes for Maine families.

Can you call GOP leaders Kevin Raye and Josh Tardy? Tell them you support the Democratic Tax Cut and urge them to stop the GOP effort which will raise your income taxes.

Here’s where to call:

Republican Senate Leader Kevin Raye

Phone: (207) 287-1505

Republican House Leader Josh Tardy

Phone: (207) 287-1440

The Maine Republican Party is simply out of step with the mainstream. It’s clear that Raye, Tardy, and the Maine GOP are in danger of following their national party’s lead and becoming the Party of ‘No.’

Thank you,

Arden Manning

Executive Director

Maine Democratic Party

PAID FOR BY THE MAINE DEMOCRATIC PARTY

NOT AUTHORIZED BY ANY CANDIDATE OR CANDIDATE’S COMMITTEE

The changes, which broaden the sales tax in order to lower the  income tax, have never been big amongst Republicans. It has been a subject of several of the opposition radio addresses, and House Republican Leader Josh Tardy (R-Newport) speaks of it derisively. In their last radio address, Tardy said that the tax reform plan “is great for people living in $700,000 houses who drive their new Lexus to their condo at Sugarloaf. But it’s not so great for Joe Six-pack who’s just trying to keep his old car on the road. He might be Joe Five-pack once this tax increase kicks in.” Though he and Senate Republican Leader Kevin Raye (R-Hancock) could not defeat it, they impressively held their caucuses together on the issue.

At the same time, it is almost a Republican plan that House Majority Leader John Piotti (D-Unity) has passionately defended all over the state.  Interestingly, there are beginning to be stirrings of opposition amongst the liberal base on the issue. Over at Turn Maine Blue (a great blog/forum/community) there has been a vigorous debate in the comments thread about tax reform. Many liberals seem confused by the Maine Democratic Party’s support of this plan.

So, while Maine Democrats may have “stolen” a Republican issue, liberals may not be thrilled with it. If the GOP can get enough signatures to put it on the ballot – either in November or June – defending it may be difficult.  Most attention will be focused on other ballot issues this fall, and if it’s on there in June, it will be hugely overshadowed by the gubernatorial primary.  At that point, if Steve Rowe has managed to remain the only serious Democratic candidate while the Republicans have a scrum, there will be low turnout for the Democratic primary – and of voters supporting LD1495.

At any rate, a people’s veto of the tax reform package will be the low-cost, under-the-radar fight of the political season that will nevertheless form interesting alliances with fascinating stories.  If the GOP is smart, they’ll find a few high-profile liberals who don’t like LD1495 and will work with them against it. If the Dems are smart, they’ll accuse the GOP of fighting a tax cut. Either way, it will be wild and wacky – just the kind of politics we like.