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Mitchell did not win by as large of a margin as LePage.  Mitchell beat Steve Rowe by roughly 15,000 votes.  LePage bested the next closest Republican, Les Otten, by roughly 25,000.  Rowe beat Mitchell in Cumberland County by roughly 5% of the voter.  Pat McGowan took Somerset by a large percentage, roughly 20% more than Mitchell.  Mitchell well in Kennebec County and in some coastal counties to a lesser extent.

Turnout for both parties was about even, 96K for the Dems and 90K for the GOP.  The party faithful will now coalesce behind their candidate.  The Bangor Daily News is calling this a “right vs. left race for governor“.  That’s what party stalwarts are saying too, at least about their party opponent.

Some on the right were cheering for Mitchell to win the nomination.  Look at this little nugget from Matt Gagnon:

…almost every single leading Republican campaign in this race has been salivating at the chance to run against Libby.  She is everything that is wrong with politics, both nationally and in Maine.  She is a career politician – literally running to complete a public service trifecta – in a year where “career politician” sounds an awful lot like “hardened criminal” to the electorate.  One campaign told me that they believe there is no way she could win, and that she would in fact come in third.  They want her as their opponent.  Bad.

Mitchell’s opponents will try to paint her as a far left, tax and spend liberal.  They will link her to Augusta and Baldacci.  There was anger behind LePage’s election.  Our economic situation has fueled a lot of outrage against the state.  The GOP will direct that anger against Mitchell.  While she will debate how liberal her record actually is, Mitchell can’t escape the fact she is linked to the current administration.  She can try to convince voters that isn’t automatically a bad thing.

Those on the left launching their bombs early as well.  They too think their opponent will be an easy candidate to beat.  We will be hearing plenty about how the Tea Party hijacked the Maine GOP.  Already, outside sources are calling LePage’s win a Tea Party victory.  The Democrats will attempt to link LePage to the worst elements of the Tea Party movement.  LePage’s social views will be brought up as much as possible.  They hit him on same-sex marriage,  teaching creationism in schools, and for things like being on the Aroostook Watchmen radio show.  “He’s just too conservative for Maine”, they will say.  The opposition will highlight it all.

Some Democrats believe, like some of the GOP believes about Mitchell, that LePage’s views make him easy to defeat.  The phrase “Woodcock 2.0″ has been tossed around already.  2006 was a completely different time.  Think about where the state and country were then, both politically and economically.  2010 is vastly different.  We are still in an economic downturn.  There is hot anti-government anger against most established politicians.  Those factors were not present in 2006.  Maine’s economy was better than it is now.  The GOP was on the outs, but that favored Democrats.  Paul LePage is not Chandler Woodock and Libby Mitchell is not John Baldacci.  Baldacci ran as a centrist Democrat and had the tide with him.  Mitchell is not a centrist and the tide has started to turn the other way.  Woodcock did not have the kind of die hard supporters behind him that LePage does.  Woodcock won his primary by roughly 3%.  Lepage, as you know, did much better.

So where does that leave Eliot Cutler?  Cutler is going to try his hardest to convince voters he is the middle way.  Cutler does not share LePage’s conservative social views.  Cutler has also said, “Our state government is too remote, too big, too unfriendly and too expensive,” which could be considered a counter-point to some of Mitchell’s policy decisions.  Cutler will try to make the case to those in the middle that he has the things they want, without the baggage that turned them away from their own party candidates.

A number of people have said that with Mitchell/LePage in the race they would give serious consideration to Cutler.  On the left, supporters of Rosa Scarcelli and Pat McGowan may be interested in Cutler.  On the right, some of all candidate’s supporters – save Bill Beardsley – may consider Cutler, especially those that backed moderate candidates like Mills or Abbott.  We don’t know yet how many voters will be loyal party supporters and line up behind their candidates.  There are the coveted independents as well.  Cutler will be courting them fiercely, as will LePage and Mitchell

The GOP will try to paint Cutler as a liberal.  Conventional wisdom says an unenrolled candidate in Maine takes more votes from a Democrat than a Republican.  Cutler is likely prepared for the eventuality of that tactic, as is Mitchell.  Don’t forget about Shawn Moody either.  While it remains to be seen if he can really get the name recognition he needs, financial reports say Moody did a $98k media buy on the 1st and he gave himself a $500k self loan back in April.  Moody is serious about this run.  He will try to occupy the same centrist space that Cutler will.  Moody may end up being a factor in this race.

It’s would be easy to say the is a clear cut choice between the far left and the far right with Cutler and Moody in the middle.  There is no easy path to victory for any candidate.  Attempting to boil the race down to this v that makes for an easily digestible news story, but the real meal is far more complex.  As we move on to join Pine Tree Politics, we’ll continue to present the gubernatorial menu as clearly as possible.  We’ll explain, in detail, what is in each dish so you can choose the most delicious meal.

The controversial and hotly debated tax package passed by the Legislature and signed by Governor Baldacci has been overturned by a people’s veto. Question One is headed to passage by a large margin, winning statewide.

This marks the third straight successful people’s veto campaign, and the second time in two years that tax changes passed by the Legislature have been overturned. It also showed – yet again – that having an enormous fundraising advantage does not guarantee a win in referendum campaigns any more than in electoral politics.

Mayor Paul LePage of Waterville – the grassroots favorite elected in one of the state’s more solidly Democratic towns – has clinched the Republican nomination easily over his six competitors.

On the Democratic side the picture is slightly more muddled, but it Senate President Elizabeth “Libby” Mitchell of Vassalboro is leading, and we are calling the race for her.

The two central Mainers will face each other – and several independents – the general election.

Before looking at each race, here are a few overall thoughts.  Last check there were still many undecided voters.   Turnout is expected to be small.  20% would be high according to Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap.  Dunlap reasoned that indecision could keep voters home.  Democrats and Republicans may reason that they will vote party line anyway so they’ll just wait instead of agonizing over a primary choice.  I caution voters against that.  The Dem race could be decided by a relatively low number of voters, even less for the GOP.  If you don’t support the candidate you feel is best for Maine, it’s feasible your least favorite could be the nominee.

Susan Cover has some numbers on voter registration.  Independents still make up the largest number of Mainers with 385,388 registered voters.  Independents can vote in the primary, provided they register with a party.  They must remain with that party for at least three months.  There are 329,610 Democrats, 270,601 Republicans, and 34,398 Green Independents registered as well.  Cover also has numbers on voters who have switched parties or enrolled in one.  Almost twice as many Independents have joined the GOP (1,200) as the Democrats (658).  956 Dems switched teams and 346 went to the other side.   Since the Republican race is more divided, those joining the GOP will make more of a difference.  We are only talking about 1,356 voters, which will be split, so it wont be a game changer by any means.

You can expect that candidates will be traveling the state in a final push to connect with voters.  Expect phone banks to be running for most candidates through tomorrow.  According to finance reports we will also see last minute ads on radio and TV.

DEMOCRATS:

As far as mailings, I have only received one from Pat McGowan.  Others have said the same.  Libby Mitchell’s expense reports show that she has paid for mailers, but I don’t know if or when Democrats received them.   McGowan’s mailer reached voters on Saturday.  This gave voters the whole weekend to ponder it.  Most voters were likely too busy  today, and will be tomorrow as well, to look into candidates.  McGowan gains an edge there.

McGowan also blanketed Southern Maine with signs, much more than I’ve seen from any of the other Dems.  Mitchell and Rosa Scarcelli follow, but Scarcelli had hers out a little earlier than Mitchell.  Also there are more large signs out for Scarcelli than any other Dem.  Steve Rowe is still severely lacking.  I’ve read that Rowe seems to have fared better Augusta to Bangor. Signs don’t win, but the lack of signs does point to a possible lack of a good grassroots game from Rowe.

Two opinions emerged from the last Democratic debate.   There was a strong showing from both Mitchell and Scarcelli.  The debates might give a small boost to Scarcelli.  “Rosa held her own against Mitchell” some people have told me.  Then there’s the other side to the story, and more importantly, the opinion that seems most prevalent.  Mitchell strengthened her lead in the debate.  They saw Scarcelli’s blows against Mitchell as condescending rather than heroic.  There is still a feeling that Scarcelli’s campaign has done more to anger Democrats than bring them to her side.  Maybe those Democrats wouldn’t have voted for Scarcelli anyway, but those tactics have turned more voters away than they have attracted.  Most of those I asked stated that both McGowan and Rowe failed to make a favorable impression during this debate.

Rowe will finish strong, but there is a good chance Mitchell will overtake him.  People expected Rowe to present himself as a strong leader, but in TV appearances, commercials, and debates Rowe made a poor impression.  That seems to have stuck with people.  Everyone was looking for a candidate to get excited about and Rowe wasn’t exciting.  Also, his lack of lawn signs show a possible lack a of strong ground game.  Rowe dropped the ball, giving his opponents an opportunity to chip away at his support.  If you are going to push that you were in the military you had better present yourself as a confident leader.  I’m not sure Rowe imparted that on voters.

All of the candidates, from both parties, are running the roads to meet voters right now.  Check out the #GubernatorialCatch hashtag on twitter for clever updates of the candidates’ travels.  One of the Democrats that must emphasize this over the next day is Steve Rowe.  Rowe is much better one on one or in small groups.  Out of that setting – like the debates for example – he appears like an entirely different man.  If Rowe continues to hit the streets and shake hands he may eek out a win over Mitchell.

I’m going to update my previous predictions slightly.  The gap between Mitchell and Rowe is going to be close.  It may turn out to be less of a gap and more of a micro-fissure. I could go back and forth over which one is really going to take this thing.  I also am all over the map with McGowan.  Did his final commercials really connect with voters?  Will voters really accept his plan to reduce the legislature or will that be a coffin nail for the McGowan campaign?  Did McGowan rely to heavily on biographical information in his campaign?  Bruce Bourgoine reasons he has.  I have heard from other sources that McGowan did not spend enough time on the issues.  One voter told me he and people from his campaign visited their place of work several times.  Not once did anyone receive an issues pamphlet or card.  Most information McGowan’s campaign handed out centered on bio or his support of sportsmen.  “I’m glad he’s a hunter, but I’d like to know what he’s going to do for Maine,” one person said.  It’s hard to say whether those issues were a hit or miss with voters.  I wouldn’t could McGowan out completely.  And then there is Scarcelli.  She will do better than expected, but I still believe she will be packing it up Wednesday morning.  Her campaign would not have been bad had Scarcelli been running as an Unenrolled candidate.  The average Democrat does not seem to be swayed.  Scarcelli will make a good showing in greater Portland.  She may surprise a few people at how well she actually does, possibly even end up a third place finish.

Last guess on outcome:

Steve Rowe: low thirties – high twenties

Libby Mitchell: low thirties – high twenties

Pat McGowan: mid twenties – high teens

Rosa Scarcelli: low twenties – teens

GOP:

I’ve had a hard time reading how the GOP race will end up.  Steve Abbott knows how to campaign and win.  Abbott has put together a good team and has a good ground game.  They are on top of things.  There is some  anti-Collins hate out there among the GOP.  Abbott’s connection to DC and Collins will prevent some people from choosing him.  That said, Susan Collins is not as hated as some people say.  Her popularity among Mainers is still relatively high.  One complaint I’ve heard from the GOP about Abbott is that he can be a little dry.  That could have prevented some casual voters from looking into Abbott further, but being unexciting hasn’t disqualified gubernatorial candidates before and it likely wont have a large impact on Abbott tomorrow.

I’ve heard from a reputable source that Les Otten is planning one last attack.  Financial reports show he has paid for radio advertising.  There is a good chance Otten will hit his closest competition, Abbott, Paul LePage, and Peter Mills.  Otten’s campaign has been a juggernaut.  You attack Otten, he comes right back at you, calls himself a victim and makes you look like the bad guy.  Dirt seems to slide off him.  Otten’s “Dad vs. Hitler” ad may backfire.  Then again, the average voter may be moved by it.  The campaign was smart releasing it so late.  No one has time to counter it with a proper fact check.  There are some documents that supposedly discuss the events Otten speaks of in his ad, if you can read German.

Peter Mills has a good team behind him. They seem to have learned from Mills’ past run for governor.  Mill has tried to appeal to demographics that his opponents hold; business people, sportsmen, and the Tea Party.  I don’t know how successful those efforts will be.  It’s safe to say not many Tea Partiers will vote for him, especially given his stance on tax reform.  Those voters weren’t his bread and butter anyway.  Mills’ ads were effective, especially his last one.  He has paid for print ads as well.  Not a bad idea, considering that people who take the time to read the papers will likely take the time to vote as well.  Mills’ team has been doing a lot of phone work.  I don’t know the details – how many calls lead to committed votes, just leaning votes, etc. – so it’s hard to say if it will pay off.  It certainly helps.  They made 137,496 calls by last count.  I think he made a good choice by putting out signs with his face on them.  No one else has done that.  They stand out, which helps people remember you.

Paul LePage is the biggest unknown.  He could surprise everyone or he could come in fourth.  Question one could bring LePage some votes, but that’s not a guarantee.  LePage’s supporters are STRONG, much stronger than any other candidate.  Sometimes I think they’d drive 3,000 miles to vote for him.  They are loyal and they are vocal.  That makes LePage’s level of support hard to judge.  Is it just a small group that is really vocal or a broader base?  LePage is certainly hitting the pavement like the other candidates, but he has bought mailers, media, and $20K on robo calls.  So how do you tell what’s real and what’s plastic grass with LePage?  You look at the results.

There are still three other candidates.  They wont to win, but what impact will they have.  Matt Jacobson and  Bruce Poliquin will draw votes from Otten and Abbott.  In Poliquin’s case it’s less votes going to him, but more about  redirected votes.  If his attacks on Otten help anyone it will be Mills and possibly Abbott.  Bill Beardsley will only steal from LePage .  Maybe more than first thought.  Recently, LePage said in a WCSH6 report that if we focus on social issues Maine will be doomed.  Dan Billings said this was a disingenuous remark from LePage.  Apparently LePage sent out a mailer the same week highlighting his positions on social issues.  “When you highlight [social issues in] your one major campaign mailing,” said Billings, “it sends the message that such issues are a priority for you.”  Beardsley’s campaign countered LePage’s WCSH6 assertion saying the following:

From Michael Pajak:

Social Conservative voters should be appalled. Not only does Paul try to nuance his flip-flopping on civil unions, but he now suggests that values voters should not expect him to put the issues they take into consideration when voting on his “priority list” should he get the nod.

LePage supporters, as they have done all along, will brush this aside as a simple misstatement or as not that important, but it is. I see this as consistent with Paul’s entire campaign, and should be cause for alarm to those that think that he represents social conservative values, or that he is electable in a General Election.

If you do not believe that civil union legislation will be the first thing on the new governor’s desk, than explain why Equality Maine and several national groups are working so hard to re-elect those that pushed gay marriage. If you support Paul LePage thinking that he will veto that bill, you should think again. He has failed to convince me of his social conservative convictions, both by his statements and his actions during this campaign.

Now it was only on AMG and Facebook so who knows how far it will reach, but if it trickles down to enough voters that may hurt LePage.  Values voters were considered by many to be a large base of support for LePage.  If they should agree with Beardsley that LePage will not walk the walk as governor,  the results could be just enough to keep LePage behind the pack.  LePage’s supporters will be at the polls tomorrow.  With the GOP pie split into so many pieces that does count for something.

Last guess on outcome:

Les Otten: mid – low twenties

Peter Mills: mid – low twenties

Steve Abbott: mid – low twenties

Paul LePage: low twenties – high teens

Matt Jacobson: mid teens

Bruce Poliquin: low teens

Bill Beardsley: single digits

But try it anyway. Chances are, your finger will land on some outrage. It seems reporters can’t take two steps without bumping into someone who’s outraged about something.

Take Referendum Question 1 on the June 8 ballot (I realize you newspaper readers will be reading this after June 8; I would have written something sooner, but the “Yes” campaign only got noticeably stupid just recently).

“Yes” signs have popped up urging us to “Reject New Taxes.” Fortunately, this will confuse people who associate “rejection” with the word “no.”

A better sign would have said, “Vote Yes if you like to complain.”

For the record, a “yes” victory repeals new reforms to our tax structure. The law reduces income taxes and adds new items to the sales tax.

What the “yes” side does not mention is that the law cuts income taxes for most Mainers from 8.5% to 6.5%, according to the Bangor Daily News.

Many of the new sales taxes would primarily impact tourists. People from Massachusetts and New York probably aren’t going to quibble over an extra few dollars on their hotel bill when they’re spending $945 in gas to get here in the first place.

But if you must preserve your outrage over Mainers being the highest-taxed group of life forms in the entire galaxy, go ahead and sabotage the only legitimate effort we’ve ever seen to do something about it.

Meanwhile, outrage is fueling calls for more Instant Replay in baseball. What a terrible idea.

Half the entertainment value in baseball comes from umpires getting grief from players and nose-to-nose shouting matches from managers.

The instant-replay reactionaries point to the bad call by umpire Jim Joyce that cost Detroit Tigers pitcher Armando Galarraga a Perfect Game (no base-runners allowed). With two out in the ninth inning, Joyce called a runner safe at first; slow-motion replays showed the runner was clearly a member of the Cleveland Indians, meaning the game should have been called off after the 7th inning under the Mercy Rule.

I don’t understand the fuss. Everyone in the world knows what Galarraga did. Who cares what they print in the stat book? If anything, this gave him a chance to do something even more special – he effectively got 28 straight outs instead of the traditional 27 required for a Perfect Game.

Finally, on another outrageous note, it always amazes me how precious our constitutional freedoms are – until somebody tries to use them.

New York City officials have approved a plan to construct a mosque a couple of blocks from Ground Zero. Reactionary conservatives are freaking out, unaware that there are millions of Muslims around the world who are not terrorists.

Have these people no sense of irony? Yeah, let’s eschew religious tolerance because we’re angry at people who attacked us for our religious tolerance.

Darn that pesky First Amendment! Whose idea was it to prevent government from discriminating for or against any particular religion? The founding fathers? What did they know, anyway?

A Washington Times editorial pointed out that there are nations in which it is a crime to convert away from Islam. Would you like the same rules to apply here for Christianity?

Meanwhile, Republicans in Congress have argued against paying for health care for 9/11 first responders, because we can’t afford it.

But we can afford health care for members of Congress, right? That’s not too expensive, is it?

I guess we ran out of outrage.

Chuck McKay is a Maine freelance writer, teacher, and civil libertarian. His website is www.tongue-in-cheek.info.

Matt Jacobson – Choices
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Pat McGowan – Newspapers
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Peter Mills – Experienced Leadership
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Libby Mitchell – Rally
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Rosa Scarcelli – Believe Again!
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We asked LePage for clarification of this statement, but his campaign did not respond in time for this post

This statement, like others LePage has made, will not be enough to dissuade loyal supporters from voting for him.  In a field of seven candidates however, it may be another reason for undecided GOP voters to question why they should.

LePage’s statement begins around 25:25

We will be joining Pine Tree Politics shortly after the primary.  You can expect the same high quality articles on Maine politics and news.  We are hoping readers from all political spectrum will join in on our discussions and consider contributing their own work.  Stay tuned for more updates on  the merger.  Thank you for your continued readership.  It’s been a wild ride and it’s not over yet…not by a long shot.