Pine Tree Politics analyzed each GOP gubernatorial candidate’s chances of winning their party’s nomination. Matt Gagnon explored possible victory scenarios for the candidates as well as the likelihood of them occurring. In conjunction with Bruce Bourgoine of Dirigo Blue, we have done the same. You may read Bruce’s scenarios here and mine below.
You could just contact a campaign to discern their chances of winning. That’s if you want to hear the same answer from everyone: we’re going to win. Matt Gagnon has an interesting analogy for this phenomenon.
From Pine Tree Politics:
Let me put it to you this way – guys, when your girlfriend comes out of the bedroom wearing jeans three sizes too small and asks you, “Do I look fat in this?” What do you say? You sure as hell don’t tell her the truth. When a friend of yours who likes to sing tries out for American Idol and looks at you and says, “You think I’m good enough to win, right?” What do you say? You sure as hell don’t tell the truth. Similarly, people who you meet and talk to on the campaign trail are forgiving, nice and complimentary – giving you the same impression of the girlfriend who doesn’t think her boyfriend thinks she looks fat, even though she really does
Gagnon says earlier that of course candidates and their volunteers will say they’re doing great. These people believe in a candidate, or otherwise they wouldn’t devote any time for their campaign. I’ve got another relationship analogy for this one. Think about how it feels when you first start a relationship – the honeymoon phase. This new person is shiny and amazing. You can’t stop telling your friends about them and generally pining all day long. People may point out flaws, but you just can’t see them.
Primary campaigns can be a lot like that. Most people haven’t picked a horse in the race yet. The most recent poll had 22-30% of likely Democratic voters as still undecided, though it’s likely closer to 40 or 50%. Those who have chosen their candidate and volunteered for them are a unique bunch. They are solidly in their candidate’s corner and highly motivated to see them to victory. When one is strongly behind a candidate, like when beginning a relationship, you want to think the world of them. You’ll gladly put the blinders on to prolong that good feeling.
That feeling doesn’t generally wear off until later, maybe once they move in with you – or into the Blaine House.
PAT MCGOWAN:
Winning Scenario – Though McGowan started late, he was the first on TV with an ad. This ad, and others that followed, hammered home McGowan’s strength in the second district. McGowan continued to press his pledge to not raise taxes. Democrats recognized his strength as a centrist in a year said to favor fiscal conservatives. McGowan tapped into resources from the Baldacci machine, giving him an advantage on several points.
Likelihood – McGowan jumped into the race a little later than his competition. The other Democrats entered during the summer of 2009. McGowan entered at the beginning of this year. That gave his opponents a jump on getting their names out there and attracting support. McGowan trails both Libby Mitchell and Steve Rowe in name recognition. Rosa Scarcelli isn’t far behind.
If he can get the attention, McGowan’s campaign has the ability to gather a wide area of support. McGowan is running as a centrist. His most recent ad features a pledge not to raise taxes, while some of his opponents have proposed new taxes. McGowan’s pledge is softer than what we’ve seen from some of the GOP, but it doesn’t need to be that firm. Democrats aren’t necessarily looking for the same sort of anti-tax message that Republicans are. McGowan also pushes his business credentials over his government experience. The mention of McGowan’s time spent as head of the Small Business Administration has been key to his campaign. Add McGowan’s business experience to his outdoorsy persona and his strong runs against Olympia Snowe and you have a candidate poised for success. McGowan’s combination of strengths puts him in a unique position that overlaps all of the other candidates, plus the added 2nd District appeal.
McGowan does not have the same name recognition of Rowe and Mitchell, so if McGowan wants to win he has got to get positive attention. It does him no good to have a resume that stands out from the pack if no one notices; otherwise he is just an also-ran. Granted, he did have an ad on TV before his competition, but at 1 minute it is expensive to run often. McGowan has roughly $390,000 on hand, more than enough to launch more ads. McGowan’s association with the Baldacci administration could be a thorn for his campaign. Right now McGowan is making a similar run as Baldacci did for the Blaine House: as a 2nd District centrist. A number of people would argue that Baldacci did not follow through on his centrist campaign promises, with Dirigo Health as the largest counter-point to that moderate badge. Being attached to the Baldacci administration, one could argue that McGowan will pull the same shift once in office, whether that is true or not.
LIBBY MITCHELL:
Winning Scenario – Mitchell used her name recognition to take the nomination. It allowed her to build a broad base of support from Democratic faithful and Democratic legislators. Mitchell played up her bipartisan efforts in the legislature. Mitchell has been a leader in tough times, which she argued successfully would made her most qualified to lead as governor. Democratic fears that the GOP would dash to the right, also aided Mitchell in securing the nomination.
Likelihood – Mitchell has large appeal with liberal Democrats. Mitchell supported same-sex marriage, raising the minimum wage, and the environment as a senator. All of these accomplishments are fresh in voters’ minds. Where McGowan and Rowe’s period of legislative service may be foggy, Mitchell’s work is current. Senator Kevin Raye credited Mitchell for working together with Republicans on recent budget struggles. Mitchell has seen some support from outside of the state. Bill Clinton has endorsed Mitchell. Politico has done glowing pieces on Mitchell. Many polls have been in Mitchell’s favor so far.
Mitchell’s strengths are also her weaknesses. Her successes are fresh, but so are her failures. The failure of Mitchell’s Paid Sick Day bill to gain any traction is not some distant memory. This just happened. Any vote in favor of raising taxes or a new tax will be easier to recall than any unpopular votes Rowe or McGowan may have made. Mitchell’s recent connection to Maine’s legislature makes her an easy target for the current economic situation. There is likely some animosity for the current administration, even among Democrats. Rowe and McGowan were both part of that administration, but not in the legislature. Rowe served from 1992-2000. McGowan served in the House from 1980-1990. In voter years we might as well be talking about John Q Adams record. Mitchell is directly linked to the current legislature. Her successes there will be touted, be the legislature’s failures, Mitchell’s fault or not, will be associated with her. Mitchell’s leadership position further strengthens that link.
Mitchell’s liberal record could also be a liability. Many I have spoken with consider her the most liberal choice in the Democratic primary. Republicans would love to see Mitchell as the nominee. Sentiments like these speak to questions of Mitchell’s viability in the general election. Pat McGowan’s centrist run and District 2 appeal and Steve Rowe’s overlapping appeal to the same demographic do not make the race any easier for Mitchell.
ROSA SCARCELLI:
Winning Scenario – As the other Democrats underestimate her, Scarcelli continues to hammer at her opponents weaknesses. Scarcelli challenged her competitors at every chance she can. Democrats take notice. They are looking for a strong leader who will stand up against the Republicans and Democrats alike. Democratic competition also pay little attention to the anti-insider feeling among the electorate, allowing Scarcelli to use that sentiment to her advantage. Though McGowan actually takes more votes in the Second District, Scarcelli soundly carries the First District and wins the nomination.
Likelihood – Scarcelli presents a distinct option to her competition as a businesswoman who hasn’t been involved in the current administration. Scarcelli is a self-described “outsider” in a race with three other insiders. Scarcelli has attempted to use that to her advantage. Clean election funding and gun control are just two of the issues Scarcelli has challenged her opponents on. Scarcelli has tried to control the Democratic conversation and coax her opponents to follow her leads. Steve Rowe responded to Scarcelli’s call for a comment on mandatory background checks for gun sales, but candidates have ignored most other challenges.
The bold bombs Scarcelli has thrown into the Democratic primary have not always aided her campaign. The previously mentioned background check question also mentioned domestic violence. Calling attention to this actually highlighted Rowe’s record fighting domestic violence as Attorney General. These challenges from the Scarcelli campaign have not been well received by all Democrats. Many Democrats I have spoken with don’t mind candidates debating each other, but find Scarcelli’s “attacks” unnecessary. It has gotten to the point that some Democrats have questioned if she is a “team player” or even in the right party. While those sentiments go too far, it is important to note that this is the perception some Democrats have of Scarcelli.
Scarcelli’s stance on Clean Election funding drew fire from Democrats. Scarcelli said in January that “in light of current economic circumstances, I decided to fund my campaign the old fashioned way”; i.e., not run as a publicly funded candidate. Scarcelli also took exception to Clean candidates saying the legislature was obligated to fund their campaigns. This release generated many comments at Dirigo Blue, most saying that Scarcelli wanted to have it both ways.
Dan Billings said the following on Scarcelli’s clean election stance:
This is a cynical political maneuver by Scarcelli that shows she is just another politician and not an outsider with a new approach. She has said that she is not critical of legislative candidates who take public financing. She is only critical of her opponents – even though it costs more to fund legislative campaigns over a four year period than it does the campaign for Governor. She is trying to have it both ways by endorsing public financing, while criticizing those who participate in the system.
At the time I said these “bombs” could go one of two ways. They could help show Scarelli as a viable alternative or backfire and become major gaffs. Since then it seems the latter is true. Democrats have questioned Scarcelli’s experience. Her position as an outsider has been challenged as well. AJ Higgins wrote an unflattering article on Scarcelli recently saying perhaps she is in the wrong party. The reception of Scarcelli’s platform amendment at the Democratic Convention was not well received. The appeal of an outsider has been overestimated in this primary season. While it will be a factor for Republicans, Democrats don’t seem to be clamoring for someone without legislative experience. On the contrary, many Democrats see that not just as a strength, but a must have. Being detached from the Baldacci administration will bring some votes, but in the Democratic primary it will likely be less of a factor than in the general election.
STEVEN ROWE:
Winning Scenario - Though he was last to air a television commercial, Rowe quietly assembled a strong grassroots team. Actively courting specific demographics and party insiders, Rowe launched a blitz in the final two weeks of the primary. Rowe gave speeches across the state during the home stretch. Supporters knocked on many doors in key areas. Since he had held off spending, Rowe had a decent war chest to act and react to his opponents tactics. Mitchell gave Rowe a fight until the last. Late June 8th Mitchell conceded, making Rowe the Democratic nominee for governor.
Likelihood – Rowe, like Libby Mitchell, has a decent amount of name recognition. Undecided voters I have spoken with always mention Rowe as a name they are considering, though not other candidates. Even voters from other parties Rowe used his name recognition early on to gather support for his campaign. Last December, 63 state legislators endorsed Rowe. Early in the race, Rowe began to target specific demographics. Women Rowe-ing aimed to attract women to support Rowe, important with Mitchell and Scarcelli in the race. There is also Generation Rowe which targets young voters. Rowe also has other specific groups of supporters voters can join; teachers, sportsmen (effective if they push this against McGowan), environmentalists and more. All of these groups could lead to a significant amount of grassroots support for Rowe and cut into bases of support for the competition.
Like Mitchell and McGowan, Rowe has legislative and government experience. Rowe served as speaker of the House and as Attorney General. Unlike other Democrats in the race, Rowe is the only one with military experience. This is important. Military service highlights many positive qualities that could assist a candidate in governing. Rowe has mentioned his Army service in the past and will continue to do so in this campaign.
Rowe has been known to speak his mind. This can be advantageous when it comes to issues like gay marriage and domestic abuse. However, this election will primarily focus on fiscal issues. Here Rowe has made some comments that may not be popular with Democrats, and certainly not with Republicans and some Independents. During the recent budget struggles, Rowe rejected some of Governor Baldacci’s cuts. Rowe advocated raising Maine’s tobacco tax to offset loss of revenue. Liberal democrats may not be turned off by this, but moderates may look to McGowan with his “no tax pledge”.
Projected Vote Totals
This is not easy. Even though we can see the finish line, the primary crystal ball is still cloudy. After speaking with many Democrats, including some who attended the convention, it is more clear who people aren’t voting for then who they are. “I’m not voting for X, but I’m not sure who I’ll support.” There are still a lot of undecided votes up for grabs. We are likely to see a blitz of ads, speeches, and handshaking in the remaining weeks. It is possible to see some crafty tactics that will shake up the race. There is an overall lack of excitement about the Democratic field, a sentiment I’ve heard personally and expressed here by the Bangor Daily News. Where the Republicans have more of a distinct choice between candidates, and a larger field, the Democrats have four candidates what the BDN pointed out was a relatively similar field. A bold speech or an unfortunate gaff could make or break a campaign. Without any further exposition, here are my predictions for the Democratic Primary.
Steve Rowe: 33%
Libby Mitchell: 28%
Pat McGowan: 24%
Rosa Scarcelli: 15%
