With the new year dawning and the Second Session of the 124th Legislature underway, we now enter an important period in Maine politics, when most potential legislative candidates make their decisions.
Although one has technically been able to file as a candidate for the Maine Legislature for quite some time, many don’t even begin to consider it until election year. For months now there have been only a smattering of legislative and local candidates listed. Most of the filed candidates have been part of the flock of gubernatorial hopefuls.
That’s now beginning to change.
Of the 151 House districts, at least one candidate has filed in 81 of them. 10 seats have candidates in both parties, and one Green candidate and one unenrolled candidate have filed as well. So far it looks as though four seats will feature party primaries: three Republican primaries and one Democratic primary.
Of the 35 Senate districts, at least one candidate has filed in 19 of them. Just three Senate districts have candidates from both parties, and so far there is just one seat with a contested primary. Two unenrolled candidates and no Greens have filed to run for the Senate.
In the coming days, as more and more candidates firm up their plans and file to run for the Legislature, we’ll be keeping an eye on a number of trends:
Party Primaries
How many contested primaries will there be in each party, and will it be more or less than normal? In 2008, there were 8 contested Republican primaries in the House and 10 Democratic primaries. On the Senate side, there no Republican primaries and 6 Democratic primaries. Will rebellions against one’s party or one’s district on the gay marriage vote result in any primaries? Will one party or the other have more contested primaries, and if so, why?
Green Candidates
The Maine Green Independent Party has said that it wishes to keep growing as a party. Will they begin to field more candidates outside the Portland area? If so, what sorts of districts will they target? How much of an impact might these candidates have?
Seats Filled
Will the Republicans and Democrats both be able to field candidates in every House district, as was the case a few cycles ago, or will there be a number of non-contested seats? If every seat isn’t contested, will one party do better than the other at filling seats? In 2008, the Democrats had significantly more uncontested seats than the Republicans, and this was indicative of the overall political climate.
Promotion & Return
Who’s going to try to move up a chamber, from the House to the Senate? How many Republicans and Democrats, comparatively, will try for the upper chamber? Like filling seats, this can be indicative of the prevailing political climate as well. We’ll also be keeping on an eye on how many former legislators from each party try a comeback for their old seats.
At the end of the week, we’ll be publishing a full list of current legislative candidates, according to filings on record with the Secretary of State’s office. We’ll be continually updating this list, as well.
