With another fundraising deadline rapidly approaching, we have seen a dramatic increase in campaign e-mails of late. While Republican Bruce Poliquin led the first fundraising period, those reports weren’t very representative. Only Matt Jacobson, Les Otten, Bruce Poliquin, Steven Rowe and Lynne Williams even filed. Many candidates had yet to declare, and some that had declared were only beginning their fundraising efforts. The reports filed on January 19, 2010 will tell us a great deal about how this campaign is shaping up, including the viability of each candidate.
For some candidates, this fundraising period could be a make-or-break moment. Those dark-horse candidates who aren’t well-known outside their home areas need to show some serious fundraising progress or their campaigns might fizzle rapidly.
For the Republican field, we expect that Otten and Poliquin will lead the way, followed by Matt Jacobson, Peter Mills and Paul LePage. The question for the Republicans will be whether Otten has managed to out-raise Poliquin – and how much each of them will have spent on their own campaign. For Mills we’ll get a snapshot of how he’s doing in his quest to qualify for Clean Election funding, while Jacobson will show whether he’s able to compete financially with Otten and Poliquin. It will also be an important moment for LePage. Although he would be unlikely to leave the race, a weak result could mire him in the bottom of the pack, while a stronger-than-expected result could vault him into the top tier.
For the Democrats, we expect that Rowe will lead the way, followed by Libby Mitchell, Rosa Scarcelli, John Richardson, Dawn Hill, and Donna Dion. For Dion and Hill, this will be a major moment. Even though both announced nearly six months ago, neither has really been campaigning heavily. If they haven’t been able to raise money we wouldn’t be surprised to see either (or both) of them exit. Dion is perhaps more likely than Hill to stick it out regardless of her fundraising success.
The result will also be important for Rowe, who is doing his best to become the establishment frontrunner. If he has a strong fundraising result, that impression will be bolstered. If he’s not far from the rest of the Democratic candidates, though, the race will remain wide open.
We’ll also be paying special attention to Rosa Scarcelli’s report. Given her extensive experience in fundraising and in business, she should do well. If she flounders it could undermine her candidacy – but if she does very well it could turn her into a top contender. As with Poliquin and Otten, it will be important to note how much she’s given to herself.
Like Mills, Mitchell and Richardson are trying to qualify for Clean Election funds, as is Green Independent Lynne Williams. We don’t expect much out of Richardson in this fundraising period, since he entered the race fairly recently, but Mitchell should have made good progress. Clean Election candidates have until April 1, 2010 to collect 3,250 contributions of $5 or more and $40,000 in seed money. The period during which they could collect these donations began in October, so the January fundraising report mark almost a perfect halfway point. If they haven’t made a significant dent in the Clean Elections requirements, they’d have to seriously pick up the pace to qualify by April.
This is especially true for the unenrolled candidates wishing to receive Clean Election funds. If an unenrolled publicly-funded candidate hasn’t gotten at least $15,000 in seed money, it’s hard to imagine them collecting the required $40,000 by the deadline. If you’ve declared as a Clean Election candidate but don’t qualify, it essentially sinks your candidacy. It will also be worthwhile to note if any of the privately-funded unenrolled candidates have raised significant funds, as it will reveal which – if any – of them are viable.
This is the last financial report deadline for gubernatorial candidates before the Clean Election qualifying deadline. We won’t get any more information from privately financed gubernatorial candidates until the end of April, about six weeks before the primary. January will be a major turning point in the race. As the election (and the state) heats up, some candidates will have to make tough decisions, and the large field is likely to be whittled down.
